{smcl}
{com}{sf}{ul off}{txt}{.-}
      name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}/Users/govindaclayton/Desktop/ISQ_Final_Log_Clayton.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}opened on:  {res}17 Feb 2021, 15:20:59

{com}. do "/Users/govindaclayton/Desktop/ISQ_Clean_do.do"
{txt}
{com}. *******************************************************************************************
. *                                                                                         *
. * The logic of ceasefires in civil war                                                    *
. *                                                                                         *
. * Govinda Clayton and Valerie Sticher                                                     *
. *                                                                                         *
. * This Version: February 17, 2021                                                         *
. *                                                                                         *
. *******************************************************************************************
. 
. use "/Users/govindaclayton/Desktop/ISQ_Replication_Data_CF.dta"
{txt}
{com}. 
. ************************************PAPER ANALYSIS*********************************************
. 
. *****Table 2*****
. 
. stset duration1, failure (term_eithera) id(cf_id)

                {txt}id:  {res}cf_id
     {txt}failure event:  {res}term_eithera != 0 & term_eithera < .
{txt}obs. time interval:  {res}(duration1[_n-1], duration1]
{txt} exit on or before:  {res}failure

{txt}{hline 78}
{res}     62,914{txt}  total observations
{res}     49,851{txt}  observations begin on or after (first) failure
{hline 78}
{res}     13,063{txt}  observations remaining, representing
{res}        280{txt}  subjects
{res}        280{txt}  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
{res}    393,353{txt}  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t = {res}        0
                                     {txt}earliest observed entry t = {res}        0
                                          {txt}last observed exit t = {res}   10,849
{txt}
{com}. 
. *Model 1-3
. stcox prelim_cf defin_cf lag_bdths_1 if unilateral==0 & localcf==0 & exclude2 !=1   , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-785.67394
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-775.55096
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-774.54915
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-774.51174
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-774.51153
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-774.51153

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         214             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     8,682
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         165
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      261070
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}3{txt})     =  {res}     30.00
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-774.51153             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:45} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}          _t{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 3}prelim_cf {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3466546{col 26}{space 2}  .206723{col 37}{space 1}   -1.68{col 46}{space 3}0.094{col 54}{space 4}-.7518242{col 67}{space 3} .0585151
{txt}{space 4}defin_cf {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.083564{col 26}{space 2} .2826545{col 37}{space 1}   -3.83{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.637557{col 67}{space 3}-.5295714
{txt}{space 1}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0014967{col 26}{space 2} .0007604{col 37}{space 1}    1.97{col 46}{space 3}0.049{col 54}{space 4} 6.29e-06{col 67}{space 3} .0029872
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo model1
{txt}
{com}. stcox prelim_cf defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc lag_bdths_1  if localcf==0 & unilateral==0 & exclude2 !=1 , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-682.84702
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-663.45076
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-662.58793
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-662.58123
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-662.58123
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-662.58123

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     7,802
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         147
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      234611
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}6{txt})     =  {res}     38.29
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-662.58123             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.6485928{col 27}{space 2} .2510416{col 38}{space 1}   -2.58{col 47}{space 3}0.010{col 55}{space 4}-1.140625{col 68}{space 3}-.1565603
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.490048{col 27}{space 2} .3428978{col 38}{space 1}   -4.35{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4}-2.162115{col 68}{space 3}-.8179802
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.8206623{col 27}{space 2} .8506283{col 38}{space 1}   -0.96{col 47}{space 3}0.335{col 55}{space 4}-2.487863{col 68}{space 3} .8465386
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.2072241{col 27}{space 2} .1081363{col 38}{space 1}   -1.92{col 47}{space 3}0.055{col 55}{space 4}-.4191674{col 68}{space 3} .0047192
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1899787{col 27}{space 2} .1650786{col 38}{space 1}    1.15{col 47}{space 3}0.250{col 55}{space 4}-.1335694{col 68}{space 3} .5135269
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0011304{col 27}{space 2} .0006796{col 38}{space 1}    1.66{col 47}{space 3}0.096{col 55}{space 4}-.0002016{col 68}{space 3} .0024624
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo model2
{txt}
{com}. stcox prelim_cf defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if localcf==0 & unilateral==0 & exclude2 !=1, nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-682.84702
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-651.56068
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-651.01892
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-651.01798
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-651.01798

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     7,802
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         147
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      234611
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}    299.53
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-651.01798             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.743246{col 27}{space 2} .2479574{col 38}{space 1}   -3.00{col 47}{space 3}0.003{col 55}{space 4}-1.229234{col 68}{space 3}-.2572583
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.223653{col 27}{space 2} .2942567{col 38}{space 1}   -4.16{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4}-1.800386{col 68}{space 3}-.6469209
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.190748{col 27}{space 2} .9373371{col 38}{space 1}   -0.20{col 47}{space 3}0.839{col 55}{space 4}-2.027895{col 68}{space 3} 1.646399
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3053035{col 27}{space 2} .1017068{col 38}{space 1}   -3.00{col 47}{space 3}0.003{col 55}{space 4}-.5046452{col 68}{space 3}-.1059618
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .110456{col 27}{space 2}  .166518{col 38}{space 1}    0.66{col 47}{space 3}0.507{col 55}{space 4}-.2159132{col 68}{space 3} .4368252
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3954936{col 27}{space 2} .2546317{col 38}{space 1}   -1.55{col 47}{space 3}0.120{col 55}{space 4}-.8945626{col 68}{space 3} .1035753
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1550582{col 27}{space 2} .0895799{col 38}{space 1}    1.73{col 47}{space 3}0.083{col 55}{space 4}-.0205151{col 68}{space 3} .3306315
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3661532{col 27}{space 2} .0965089{col 38}{space 1}    3.79{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .1769993{col 68}{space 3} .5553071
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0393169{col 27}{space 2} .2123866{col 38}{space 1}    0.19{col 47}{space 3}0.853{col 55}{space 4}-.3769533{col 68}{space 3}  .455587
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0013861{col 27}{space 2} .0005765{col 38}{space 1}    2.40{col 47}{space 3}0.016{col 55}{space 4} .0002561{col 68}{space 3} .0025162
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo model3
{txt}
{com}. 
. *Model 4
. stcox  defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if localcf==0 & unilateral==0 & exclude2 !=1 & coh==0 , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-298.55264
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-286.41279
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-285.81293
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-285.81254
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-285.81254
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-285.81254

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         106             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     6,025
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}          72
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      181814
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}9{txt})     =  {res}     51.03
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-285.81254             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:39} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.8868081{col 27}{space 2} .3106138{col 38}{space 1}   -2.86{col 47}{space 3}0.004{col 55}{space 4}  -1.4956{col 68}{space 3}-.2780162
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.396032{col 27}{space 2} 1.266085{col 38}{space 1}   -1.10{col 47}{space 3}0.270{col 55}{space 4}-3.877513{col 68}{space 3} 1.085449
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0425212{col 27}{space 2} .1466663{col 38}{space 1}   -0.29{col 47}{space 3}0.772{col 55}{space 4}-.3299818{col 68}{space 3} .2449395
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.236333{col 27}{space 2} .1547593{col 38}{space 1}   -1.53{col 47}{space 3}0.127{col 55}{space 4}-.5396556{col 68}{space 3} .0669897
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7424551{col 27}{space 2} .4016721{col 38}{space 1}   -1.85{col 47}{space 3}0.065{col 55}{space 4}-1.529718{col 68}{space 3} .0448077
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0783618{col 27}{space 2} .2020658{col 38}{space 1}    0.39{col 47}{space 3}0.698{col 55}{space 4}-.3176799{col 68}{space 3} .4744035
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .2054678{col 27}{space 2}  .138044{col 38}{space 1}    1.49{col 47}{space 3}0.137{col 55}{space 4}-.0650935{col 68}{space 3} .4760291
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0132359{col 27}{space 2} .2411325{col 38}{space 1}   -0.05{col 47}{space 3}0.956{col 55}{space 4} -.485847{col 68}{space 3} .4593751
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0007116{col 27}{space 2} .0011182{col 38}{space 1}    0.64{col 47}{space 3}0.525{col 55}{space 4}-.0014801{col 68}{space 3} .0029033
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo model4
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab model1 model2 model3 model4, cells(b(star fmt(3)) p(par fmt(2))) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01) scalars("N_fail Conflict Terminations" "aic AIC" "bic BIC" "ll Log lik." "chi2 Chi-squared")  label 
{res}
{txt}{hline 80}
{txt}                              (1)            (2)            (3)            (4)  
{txt}                     analysis t~s   analysis t~s   analysis t~s   analysis t~s  
{txt}                              b/p            b/p            b/p            b/p  
{txt}{hline 80}
{txt}Preliminary CF no ~n{res}       -0.347+        -0.649**       -0.743**               {txt}
                    {res}       (0.09)         (0.01)         (0.00)                 {txt}
{txt}Definitive CF       {res}       -1.084**       -1.490**       -1.224**       -0.887**{txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.00)         (0.00)         (0.00)  {txt}
{txt}Lag BD 1 month      {res}        0.001*         0.001+         0.001*         0.001  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.05)         (0.10)         (0.02)         (0.52)  {txt}
{txt}Electoral democrac~x{res}                      -0.821         -0.191         -1.396  {txt}
                    {res}                      (0.33)         (0.84)         (0.27)  {txt}
{txt}Log Population      {res}                      -0.207+        -0.305**       -0.043  {txt}
                    {res}                      (0.06)         (0.00)         (0.77)  {txt}
{txt}Log GDP per capita  {res}                       0.190          0.110         -0.236  {txt}
                    {res}                      (0.25)         (0.51)         (0.13)  {txt}
{txt}UCDP Incompatabili~n{res}                                     -0.395         -0.742+ {txt}
                    {res}                                     (0.12)         (0.06)  {txt}
{txt}Count of other act~ {res}                                      0.155+         0.078  {txt}
                    {res}                                     (0.08)         (0.70)  {txt}
{txt}Count of dyads in ~t{res}                                      0.366**        0.205  {txt}
                    {res}                                     (0.00)         (0.14)  {txt}
{txt}Peacekeeping mission{res}                                      0.039         -0.013  {txt}
                    {res}                                     (0.85)         (0.96)  {txt}
{txt}{hline 80}
{txt}Observations        {res}         8682           7802           7802           6025  {txt}
{txt}Conflict Terminati~s{res}          165            147            147             72  {txt}
{txt}AIC                 {res}       1555.0         1337.2         1322.0          589.6  {txt}
{txt}BIC                 {res}       1576.2         1378.9         1391.7          650.0  {txt}
{txt}Log lik.            {res}       -774.5         -662.6         -651.0         -285.8  {txt}
{txt}Chi-squared         {res}        30.00          38.29          299.5          51.03  {txt}
{txt}{hline 80}

{com}. 
. *Figure 2 (Graph 25 BD)
. stcox prelim_cf defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if localcf==0 & unilateral==0 & exclude2 !=1, nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-682.84702
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-651.56068
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-651.01892
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-651.01798
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-651.01798

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     7,802
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         147
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      234611
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}    299.53
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-651.01798             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.743246{col 27}{space 2} .2479574{col 38}{space 1}   -3.00{col 47}{space 3}0.003{col 55}{space 4}-1.229234{col 68}{space 3}-.2572583
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.223653{col 27}{space 2} .2942567{col 38}{space 1}   -4.16{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4}-1.800386{col 68}{space 3}-.6469209
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.190748{col 27}{space 2} .9373371{col 38}{space 1}   -0.20{col 47}{space 3}0.839{col 55}{space 4}-2.027895{col 68}{space 3} 1.646399
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3053035{col 27}{space 2} .1017068{col 38}{space 1}   -3.00{col 47}{space 3}0.003{col 55}{space 4}-.5046452{col 68}{space 3}-.1059618
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .110456{col 27}{space 2}  .166518{col 38}{space 1}    0.66{col 47}{space 3}0.507{col 55}{space 4}-.2159132{col 68}{space 3} .4368252
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3954936{col 27}{space 2} .2546317{col 38}{space 1}   -1.55{col 47}{space 3}0.120{col 55}{space 4}-.8945626{col 68}{space 3} .1035753
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1550582{col 27}{space 2} .0895799{col 38}{space 1}    1.73{col 47}{space 3}0.083{col 55}{space 4}-.0205151{col 68}{space 3} .3306315
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3661532{col 27}{space 2} .0965089{col 38}{space 1}    3.79{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .1769993{col 68}{space 3} .5553071
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0393169{col 27}{space 2} .2123866{col 38}{space 1}    0.19{col 47}{space 3}0.853{col 55}{space 4}-.3769533{col 68}{space 3}  .455587
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0013861{col 27}{space 2} .0005765{col 38}{space 1}    2.40{col 47}{space 3}0.016{col 55}{space 4} .0002561{col 68}{space 3} .0025162
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. stcurve, surv at1(prelim_cf =0 defin_cf=0 ) at2(prelim_cf=1 defin_cf=0 ) at3(prelim_cf=0 defin_cf=1) legend(size(small)) range (0 365) 
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. *Model 5-6
. 
. stset duration_1threshold, failure (term_either_1threshold) id(cf_id)

                {txt}id:  {res}cf_id
     {txt}failure event:  {res}term_either_1threshold != 0 & term_either_1threshold < .
{txt}obs. time interval:  {res}(duration_1threshold[_n-1], duration_1threshold]
{txt} exit on or before:  {res}failure

{txt}{hline 78}
{res}     62,914{txt}  total observations
{res}     53,820{txt}  observations begin on or after (first) failure
{hline 78}
{res}      9,094{txt}  observations remaining, representing
{res}        280{txt}  subjects
{res}        280{txt}  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
{res}    272,546{txt}  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t = {res}        0
                                     {txt}earliest observed entry t = {res}        0
                                          {txt}last observed exit t = {res}   10,849
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox prelim_cf defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if localcf==0 & unilateral==0 & exclude_1theshold !=1, nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_either_1threshold
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration_1threshold
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-736.98569
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -720.9746
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-711.18725
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-710.19491
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-710.14773
{txt}Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-710.14755
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-710.14755

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     5,299
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         162
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      158423
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}    141.09
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-710.14755             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.5863623{col 27}{space 2} .2078456{col 38}{space 1}   -2.82{col 47}{space 3}0.005{col 55}{space 4}-.9937322{col 68}{space 3}-.1789923
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -1.01947{col 27}{space 2} .2969656{col 38}{space 1}   -3.43{col 47}{space 3}0.001{col 55}{space 4}-1.601512{col 68}{space 3}-.4374283
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .572465{col 27}{space 2} .7936056{col 38}{space 1}    0.72{col 47}{space 3}0.471{col 55}{space 4}-.9829733{col 68}{space 3} 2.127903
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.2360454{col 27}{space 2} .0923626{col 38}{space 1}   -2.56{col 47}{space 3}0.011{col 55}{space 4}-.4170728{col 68}{space 3}-.0550179
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .2077493{col 27}{space 2}  .134855{col 38}{space 1}    1.54{col 47}{space 3}0.123{col 55}{space 4}-.0565617{col 68}{space 3} .4720603
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.1205671{col 27}{space 2}  .227085{col 38}{space 1}   -0.53{col 47}{space 3}0.595{col 55}{space 4}-.5656456{col 68}{space 3} .3245114
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1104864{col 27}{space 2} .0852884{col 38}{space 1}    1.30{col 47}{space 3}0.195{col 55}{space 4}-.0566758{col 68}{space 3} .2776485
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3044557{col 27}{space 2} .1156366{col 38}{space 1}    2.63{col 47}{space 3}0.008{col 55}{space 4} .0778122{col 68}{space 3} .5310992
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0750291{col 27}{space 2} .1886852{col 38}{space 1}    0.40{col 47}{space 3}0.691{col 55}{space 4}-.2947871{col 68}{space 3} .4448454
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .002381{col 27}{space 2} .0006608{col 38}{space 1}    3.60{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .0010859{col 68}{space 3} .0036762
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo model5
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox  defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if localcf==0 & unilateral==0 & exclude_1theshold !=1 & coh==0 , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_either_1threshold
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration_1threshold
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-332.41406
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-323.57877
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-320.13955
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-320.07754
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-320.07737
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-320.07737

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         106             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     4,370
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}          82
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      131436
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}9{txt})     =  {res}     50.13
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-320.07737             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:39} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.6671337{col 27}{space 2} .3230098{col 38}{space 1}   -2.07{col 47}{space 3}0.039{col 55}{space 4}-1.300221{col 68}{space 3}-.0340461
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7580233{col 27}{space 2} 1.248471{col 38}{space 1}   -0.61{col 47}{space 3}0.544{col 55}{space 4}-3.204981{col 68}{space 3} 1.688934
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0381187{col 27}{space 2} .1187266{col 38}{space 1}   -0.32{col 47}{space 3}0.748{col 55}{space 4}-.2708186{col 68}{space 3} .1945812
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0526211{col 27}{space 2} .1498358{col 38}{space 1}   -0.35{col 47}{space 3}0.725{col 55}{space 4}-.3462938{col 68}{space 3} .2410516
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.566787{col 27}{space 2} .2770591{col 38}{space 1}   -2.05{col 47}{space 3}0.041{col 55}{space 4}-1.109813{col 68}{space 3}-.0237612
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0400599{col 27}{space 2} .1457769{col 38}{space 1}   -0.27{col 47}{space 3}0.783{col 55}{space 4}-.3257773{col 68}{space 3} .2456576
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1623389{col 27}{space 2}  .146607{col 38}{space 1}    1.11{col 47}{space 3}0.268{col 55}{space 4}-.1250055{col 68}{space 3} .4496833
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0773958{col 27}{space 2}  .244652{col 38}{space 1}   -0.32{col 47}{space 3}0.752{col 55}{space 4}-.5569049{col 68}{space 3} .4021132
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0033435{col 27}{space 2} .0008695{col 38}{space 1}    3.85{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .0016394{col 68}{space 3} .0050476
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo model6
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab model5 model6 , cells(b(star fmt(3)) p(par fmt(2))) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01) scalars("N_fail Conflict Terminations" "aic AIC" "bic BIC" "ll Log lik." "chi2 Chi-squared")  label 
{res}
{txt}{hline 50}
{txt}                              (1)            (2)  
{txt}                     analysis t~s   analysis t~s  
{txt}                              b/p            b/p  
{txt}{hline 50}
{txt}Preliminary CF no ~n{res}       -0.586**               {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)                 {txt}
{txt}Definitive CF       {res}       -1.019**       -0.667* {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.04)  {txt}
{txt}Electoral democrac~x{res}        0.572         -0.758  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.47)         (0.54)  {txt}
{txt}Log Population      {res}       -0.236*        -0.038  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.01)         (0.75)  {txt}
{txt}Log GDP per capita  {res}        0.208         -0.053  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.12)         (0.73)  {txt}
{txt}UCDP Incompatabili~n{res}       -0.121         -0.567* {txt}
                    {res}       (0.60)         (0.04)  {txt}
{txt}Count of other act~ {res}        0.110         -0.040  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.20)         (0.78)  {txt}
{txt}Count of dyads in ~t{res}        0.304**        0.162  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.01)         (0.27)  {txt}
{txt}Peacekeeping mission{res}        0.075         -0.077  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.69)         (0.75)  {txt}
{txt}Lag BD 1 month      {res}        0.002**        0.003**{txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.00)  {txt}
{txt}{hline 50}
{txt}Observations        {res}         5299           4370  {txt}
{txt}Conflict Terminati~s{res}          162             82  {txt}
{txt}AIC                 {res}       1440.3          658.2  {txt}
{txt}BIC                 {res}       1506.0          715.6  {txt}
{txt}Log lik.            {res}       -710.1         -320.1  {txt}
{txt}Chi-squared         {res}        141.1          50.13  {txt}
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. 
. * Figure 3 (Graph 1 BD)
. stcox prelim_cf defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if localcf==0 & unilateral==0 & exclude_1theshold !=1, nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_either_1threshold
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration_1threshold
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-736.98569
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -720.9746
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-711.18725
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-710.19491
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-710.14773
{txt}Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-710.14755
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-710.14755

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     5,299
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         162
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      158423
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}    141.09
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-710.14755             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.5863623{col 27}{space 2} .2078456{col 38}{space 1}   -2.82{col 47}{space 3}0.005{col 55}{space 4}-.9937322{col 68}{space 3}-.1789923
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -1.01947{col 27}{space 2} .2969656{col 38}{space 1}   -3.43{col 47}{space 3}0.001{col 55}{space 4}-1.601512{col 68}{space 3}-.4374283
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .572465{col 27}{space 2} .7936056{col 38}{space 1}    0.72{col 47}{space 3}0.471{col 55}{space 4}-.9829733{col 68}{space 3} 2.127903
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.2360454{col 27}{space 2} .0923626{col 38}{space 1}   -2.56{col 47}{space 3}0.011{col 55}{space 4}-.4170728{col 68}{space 3}-.0550179
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .2077493{col 27}{space 2}  .134855{col 38}{space 1}    1.54{col 47}{space 3}0.123{col 55}{space 4}-.0565617{col 68}{space 3} .4720603
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.1205671{col 27}{space 2}  .227085{col 38}{space 1}   -0.53{col 47}{space 3}0.595{col 55}{space 4}-.5656456{col 68}{space 3} .3245114
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1104864{col 27}{space 2} .0852884{col 38}{space 1}    1.30{col 47}{space 3}0.195{col 55}{space 4}-.0566758{col 68}{space 3} .2776485
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3044557{col 27}{space 2} .1156366{col 38}{space 1}    2.63{col 47}{space 3}0.008{col 55}{space 4} .0778122{col 68}{space 3} .5310992
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0750291{col 27}{space 2} .1886852{col 38}{space 1}    0.40{col 47}{space 3}0.691{col 55}{space 4}-.2947871{col 68}{space 3} .4448454
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .002381{col 27}{space 2} .0006608{col 38}{space 1}    3.60{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .0010859{col 68}{space 3} .0036762
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. stcurve, surv at1(prelim_cf =0 defin_cf=0 ) at2(prelim_cf=1 defin_cf=0 ) at3(prelim_cf=0 defin_cf=1) legend(size(small)) range (0 365) 
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. *******Rerun data creation file with 100 BD as threshold. 
. stset duration_100threshold, failure (term_either_100threshold) id(cf_id)

                {txt}id:  {res}cf_id
     {txt}failure event:  {res}term_either_100threshold != 0 & term_either_100threshold < .
{txt}obs. time interval:  {res}(duration_100threshold[_n-1], duration_100threshold]
{txt} exit on or before:  {res}failure

{txt}{hline 78}
{res}     62,914{txt}  total observations
{res}     47,995{txt}  observations begin on or after (first) failure
{hline 78}
{res}     14,919{txt}  observations remaining, representing
{res}        280{txt}  subjects
{res}        280{txt}  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
{res}    449,846{txt}  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t = {res}        0
                                     {txt}earliest observed entry t = {res}        0
                                          {txt}last observed exit t = {res}   10,849
{txt}
{com}. 
. *Model 7-8
. stset duration_100threshold, failure (term_either_100threshold) id(cf_id)

                {txt}id:  {res}cf_id
     {txt}failure event:  {res}term_either_100threshold != 0 & term_either_100threshold < .
{txt}obs. time interval:  {res}(duration_100threshold[_n-1], duration_100threshold]
{txt} exit on or before:  {res}failure

{txt}{hline 78}
{res}     62,914{txt}  total observations
{res}     47,995{txt}  observations begin on or after (first) failure
{hline 78}
{res}     14,919{txt}  observations remaining, representing
{res}        280{txt}  subjects
{res}        280{txt}  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
{res}    449,846{txt}  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t = {res}        0
                                     {txt}earliest observed entry t = {res}        0
                                          {txt}last observed exit t = {res}   10,849
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox prelim_cf defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if localcf==0 & unilateral==0 & exclude_100theshold !=1, nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_either_100threshold
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration_100threshold
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-662.63389
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-631.38027
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-630.45805
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-630.44356
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-630.44354
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-630.44354

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     8,783
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         142
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      264477
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}    136.68
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-630.44354             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7415718{col 27}{space 2} .2534741{col 38}{space 1}   -2.93{col 47}{space 3}0.003{col 55}{space 4}-1.238372{col 68}{space 3}-.2447717
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.337439{col 27}{space 2} .3015918{col 38}{space 1}   -4.43{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4}-1.928548{col 68}{space 3}  -.74633
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.077307{col 27}{space 2} .9603996{col 38}{space 1}   -0.08{col 47}{space 3}0.936{col 55}{space 4}-1.959656{col 68}{space 3} 1.805042
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3326382{col 27}{space 2} .1155649{col 38}{space 1}   -2.88{col 47}{space 3}0.004{col 55}{space 4}-.5591412{col 68}{space 3}-.1061353
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0892682{col 27}{space 2} .1745633{col 38}{space 1}    0.51{col 47}{space 3}0.609{col 55}{space 4}-.2528696{col 68}{space 3}  .431406
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.438996{col 27}{space 2} .3071873{col 38}{space 1}   -1.43{col 47}{space 3}0.153{col 55}{space 4}-1.041072{col 68}{space 3} .1630801
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1365663{col 27}{space 2} .0998034{col 38}{space 1}    1.37{col 47}{space 3}0.171{col 55}{space 4}-.0590447{col 68}{space 3} .3321773
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .353592{col 27}{space 2} .0958348{col 38}{space 1}    3.69{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .1657593{col 68}{space 3} .5414247
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0805826{col 27}{space 2} .2051731{col 38}{space 1}    0.39{col 47}{space 3}0.695{col 55}{space 4}-.3215494{col 68}{space 3} .4827146
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0018058{col 27}{space 2} .0005561{col 38}{space 1}    3.25{col 47}{space 3}0.001{col 55}{space 4} .0007159{col 68}{space 3} .0028957
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo model7
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox  defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if localcf==0 & unilateral==0 & exclude_100theshold !=1 & coh==0 , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_either_100threshold
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration_100threshold
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-287.09004
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-274.42407
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-273.50075
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-273.47643
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-273.47631
{txt}Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-273.47631
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-273.47631

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         106             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     6,714
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}          69
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      202789
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}9{txt})     =  {res}    122.05
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-273.47631             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:39} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.9775773{col 27}{space 2} .3374351{col 38}{space 1}   -2.90{col 47}{space 3}0.004{col 55}{space 4}-1.638938{col 68}{space 3}-.3162167
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.926597{col 27}{space 2} 1.268811{col 38}{space 1}   -1.52{col 47}{space 3}0.129{col 55}{space 4}-4.413422{col 68}{space 3} .5602267
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0710417{col 27}{space 2} .1729531{col 38}{space 1}   -0.41{col 47}{space 3}0.681{col 55}{space 4}-.4100236{col 68}{space 3} .2679402
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.1525072{col 27}{space 2}  .184484{col 38}{space 1}   -0.83{col 47}{space 3}0.408{col 55}{space 4}-.5140892{col 68}{space 3} .2090749
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.8097182{col 27}{space 2} .4441168{col 38}{space 1}   -1.82{col 47}{space 3}0.068{col 55}{space 4}-1.680171{col 68}{space 3} .0607347
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0210432{col 27}{space 2} .1910142{col 38}{space 1}   -0.11{col 47}{space 3}0.912{col 55}{space 4}-.3954241{col 68}{space 3} .3533377
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .2198259{col 27}{space 2} .1422077{col 38}{space 1}    1.55{col 47}{space 3}0.122{col 55}{space 4}-.0588961{col 68}{space 3} .4985478
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0000927{col 27}{space 2} .2082295{col 38}{space 1}    0.00{col 47}{space 3}1.000{col 55}{space 4}-.4080295{col 68}{space 3}  .408215
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0017735{col 27}{space 2} .0008584{col 38}{space 1}    2.07{col 47}{space 3}0.039{col 55}{space 4} .0000911{col 68}{space 3}  .003456
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo model8
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab model7 model8 , cells(b(star fmt(3)) p(par fmt(2))) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01) scalars("N_fail Conflict Terminations" "aic AIC" "bic BIC" "ll Log lik." "chi2 Chi-squared")  label 
{res}
{txt}{hline 50}
{txt}                              (1)            (2)  
{txt}                     analysis t~s   analysis t~s  
{txt}                              b/p            b/p  
{txt}{hline 50}
{txt}Preliminary CF no ~n{res}       -0.742**               {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)                 {txt}
{txt}Definitive CF       {res}       -1.337**       -0.978**{txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.00)  {txt}
{txt}Electoral democrac~x{res}       -0.077         -1.927  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.94)         (0.13)  {txt}
{txt}Log Population      {res}       -0.333**       -0.071  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.68)  {txt}
{txt}Log GDP per capita  {res}        0.089         -0.153  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.61)         (0.41)  {txt}
{txt}UCDP Incompatabili~n{res}       -0.439         -0.810+ {txt}
                    {res}       (0.15)         (0.07)  {txt}
{txt}Count of other act~ {res}        0.137         -0.021  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.17)         (0.91)  {txt}
{txt}Count of dyads in ~t{res}        0.354**        0.220  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.12)  {txt}
{txt}Peacekeeping mission{res}        0.081          0.000  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.69)         (1.00)  {txt}
{txt}Lag BD 1 month      {res}        0.002**        0.002* {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.04)  {txt}
{txt}{hline 50}
{txt}Observations        {res}         8783           6714  {txt}
{txt}Conflict Terminati~s{res}          142             69  {txt}
{txt}AIC                 {res}       1280.9          565.0  {txt}
{txt}BIC                 {res}       1351.7          626.3  {txt}
{txt}Log lik.            {res}       -630.4         -273.5  {txt}
{txt}Chi-squared         {res}        136.7          122.0  {txt}
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. 
. *Figure Online Appenidx (OA) 1 (Graph 100 BD)
. stcox prelim_cf defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if localcf==0 & unilateral==0 & exclude_100theshold !=1, nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_either_100threshold
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration_100threshold
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-662.63389
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-631.38027
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-630.45805
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-630.44356
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-630.44354
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-630.44354

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     8,783
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         142
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      264477
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}    136.68
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-630.44354             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7415718{col 27}{space 2} .2534741{col 38}{space 1}   -2.93{col 47}{space 3}0.003{col 55}{space 4}-1.238372{col 68}{space 3}-.2447717
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.337439{col 27}{space 2} .3015918{col 38}{space 1}   -4.43{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4}-1.928548{col 68}{space 3}  -.74633
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.077307{col 27}{space 2} .9603996{col 38}{space 1}   -0.08{col 47}{space 3}0.936{col 55}{space 4}-1.959656{col 68}{space 3} 1.805042
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3326382{col 27}{space 2} .1155649{col 38}{space 1}   -2.88{col 47}{space 3}0.004{col 55}{space 4}-.5591412{col 68}{space 3}-.1061353
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0892682{col 27}{space 2} .1745633{col 38}{space 1}    0.51{col 47}{space 3}0.609{col 55}{space 4}-.2528696{col 68}{space 3}  .431406
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.438996{col 27}{space 2} .3071873{col 38}{space 1}   -1.43{col 47}{space 3}0.153{col 55}{space 4}-1.041072{col 68}{space 3} .1630801
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1365663{col 27}{space 2} .0998034{col 38}{space 1}    1.37{col 47}{space 3}0.171{col 55}{space 4}-.0590447{col 68}{space 3} .3321773
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .353592{col 27}{space 2} .0958348{col 38}{space 1}    3.69{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .1657593{col 68}{space 3} .5414247
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0805826{col 27}{space 2} .2051731{col 38}{space 1}    0.39{col 47}{space 3}0.695{col 55}{space 4}-.3215494{col 68}{space 3} .4827146
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0018058{col 27}{space 2} .0005561{col 38}{space 1}    3.25{col 47}{space 3}0.001{col 55}{space 4} .0007159{col 68}{space 3} .0028957
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. stcurve, surv at1(prelim_cf =0 defin_cf=0 ) at2(prelim_cf=1 defin_cf=0 ) at3(prelim_cf=0 defin_cf=1) legend(size(small)) range (0 365) 
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. ************ Open Matched Data 
. 
. use "/Users/govindaclayton/Desktop/ISQ_Matched_data.dta"
{txt}
{com}. 
. stset duration1, failure (term_eithera) id(cf_id)

                {txt}id:  {res}cf_id
     {txt}failure event:  {res}term_eithera != 0 & term_eithera < .
{txt}obs. time interval:  {res}(duration1[_n-1], duration1]
{txt} exit on or before:  {res}failure

{txt}{hline 78}
{res}     44,367{txt}  total observations
{res}     35,668{txt}  observations begin on or after (first) failure
{hline 78}
{res}      8,699{txt}  observations remaining, representing
{res}        184{txt}  subjects
{res}        180{txt}  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
{res}    261,920{txt}  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t = {res}        0
                                     {txt}earliest observed entry t = {res}        0
                                          {txt}last observed exit t = {res}   10,849
{txt}
{com}. 
. *Model 9-10
. stcox  prelim_cf defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc lag_bdths_1 if localcf==0 & unilateral==0 & exclude2 !=1 , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-495.73845
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-484.17723
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-483.80042
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-483.80017
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-483.80017

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         148             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     4,974
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         114
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      149174
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}6{txt})     =  {res}     30.77
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-483.80017             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:36} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7515547{col 27}{space 2} .2347085{col 38}{space 1}   -3.20{col 47}{space 3}0.001{col 55}{space 4}-1.211575{col 68}{space 3}-.2915345
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -1.30811{col 27}{space 2} .4370734{col 38}{space 1}   -2.99{col 47}{space 3}0.003{col 55}{space 4}-2.164758{col 68}{space 3}-.4514615
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.9365325{col 27}{space 2} 1.369484{col 38}{space 1}   -0.68{col 47}{space 3}0.494{col 55}{space 4}-3.620672{col 68}{space 3} 1.747607
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.2116608{col 27}{space 2}  .170966{col 38}{space 1}   -1.24{col 47}{space 3}0.216{col 55}{space 4}-.5467481{col 68}{space 3} .1234265
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1355226{col 27}{space 2} .1776923{col 38}{space 1}    0.76{col 47}{space 3}0.446{col 55}{space 4} -.212748{col 68}{space 3} .4837932
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0009295{col 27}{space 2} .0006545{col 38}{space 1}    1.42{col 47}{space 3}0.156{col 55}{space 4}-.0003534{col 68}{space 3} .0022123
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelm1
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox  prelim_cf defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if localcf==0 & unilateral==0 & exclude2 !=1, nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-495.73845
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-474.08743
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-473.87322
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-473.87319
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-473.87319

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         148             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     4,974
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         114
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      149174
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}    127.99
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-473.87319             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:36} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7455083{col 27}{space 2} .2235154{col 38}{space 1}   -3.34{col 47}{space 3}0.001{col 55}{space 4} -1.18359{col 68}{space 3}-.3074262
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.024197{col 27}{space 2} .3556471{col 38}{space 1}   -2.88{col 47}{space 3}0.004{col 55}{space 4}-1.721252{col 68}{space 3}-.3271413
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.2750103{col 27}{space 2} 1.314833{col 38}{space 1}   -0.21{col 47}{space 3}0.834{col 55}{space 4}-2.852035{col 68}{space 3} 2.302014
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.1972498{col 27}{space 2} .1571027{col 38}{space 1}   -1.26{col 47}{space 3}0.209{col 55}{space 4}-.5051655{col 68}{space 3} .1106659
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0878579{col 27}{space 2}  .178594{col 38}{space 1}   -0.49{col 47}{space 3}0.623{col 55}{space 4}-.4378958{col 68}{space 3}   .26218
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7685262{col 27}{space 2} .3286423{col 38}{space 1}   -2.34{col 47}{space 3}0.019{col 55}{space 4}-1.412653{col 68}{space 3}-.1243991
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0034007{col 27}{space 2} .1303372{col 38}{space 1}    0.03{col 47}{space 3}0.979{col 55}{space 4}-.2520556{col 68}{space 3}  .258857
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3762785{col 27}{space 2} .1215116{col 38}{space 1}    3.10{col 47}{space 3}0.002{col 55}{space 4} .1381201{col 68}{space 3} .6144369
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0445964{col 27}{space 2} .2256484{col 38}{space 1}   -0.20{col 47}{space 3}0.843{col 55}{space 4}-.4868591{col 68}{space 3} .3976663
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0012616{col 27}{space 2} .0006265{col 38}{space 1}    2.01{col 47}{space 3}0.044{col 55}{space 4} .0000336{col 68}{space 3} .0024896
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelm2
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab modelm1 modelm2 , cells(b(star fmt(3)) p(par fmt(2))) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01) scalars("N_fail Conflict Terminations" "aic AIC" "bic BIC" "ll Log lik." "chi2 Chi-squared")  label 
{res}
{txt}{hline 50}
{txt}                              (1)            (2)  
{txt}                     analysis t~s   analysis t~s  
{txt}                              b/p            b/p  
{txt}{hline 50}
{txt}Preliminary CF no ~n{res}       -0.752**       -0.746**{txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.00)  {txt}
{txt}Definitive CF       {res}       -1.308**       -1.024**{txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.00)  {txt}
{txt}Electoral democrac~x{res}       -0.937         -0.275  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.49)         (0.83)  {txt}
{txt}Log Population      {res}       -0.212         -0.197  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.22)         (0.21)  {txt}
{txt}Log GDP per capita  {res}        0.136         -0.088  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.45)         (0.62)  {txt}
{txt}lag_bdths_1         {res}        0.001          0.001* {txt}
                    {res}       (0.16)         (0.04)  {txt}
{txt}UCDP Incompatabili~n{res}                      -0.769* {txt}
                    {res}                      (0.02)  {txt}
{txt}Count of other act~ {res}                       0.003  {txt}
                    {res}                      (0.98)  {txt}
{txt}Count of dyads in ~t{res}                       0.376**{txt}
                    {res}                      (0.00)  {txt}
{txt}Peacekeeping mission{res}                      -0.045  {txt}
                    {res}                      (0.84)  {txt}
{txt}{hline 50}
{txt}Observations        {res}         4974           4974  {txt}
{txt}Conflict Terminati~s{res}          114            114  {txt}
{txt}AIC                 {res}        979.6          967.7  {txt}
{txt}BIC                 {res}       1018.7         1032.9  {txt}
{txt}Log lik.            {res}       -483.8         -473.9  {txt}
{txt}Chi-squared         {res}        30.77          128.0  {txt}
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. 
. 
. *****Table 3******
. 
. use "/Users/govindaclayton/Desktop/ISQ_Replication_Data_CF.dta", replace
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. stset duration1, failure (term_eithera) id(cf_id)

                {txt}id:  {res}cf_id
     {txt}failure event:  {res}term_eithera != 0 & term_eithera < .
{txt}obs. time interval:  {res}(duration1[_n-1], duration1]
{txt} exit on or before:  {res}failure

{txt}{hline 78}
{res}     62,914{txt}  total observations
{res}     49,851{txt}  observations begin on or after (first) failure
{hline 78}
{res}     13,063{txt}  observations remaining, representing
{res}        280{txt}  subjects
{res}        280{txt}  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
{res}    393,353{txt}  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t = {res}        0
                                     {txt}earliest observed entry t = {res}        0
                                          {txt}last observed exit t = {res}   10,849
{txt}
{com}. 
. *Models 11-15
. 
. stcox countprov3 defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if localcf==0 & unilateral==0 & exclude2 !=1, nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-682.84702
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-657.47566
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-656.39652
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-656.39448
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-656.39448
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-656.39448

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     7,802
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         147
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      234611
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}    241.64
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-656.39448             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 3}countprov3 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.124878{col 27}{space 2} .0749418{col 38}{space 1}   -1.67{col 47}{space 3}0.096{col 55}{space 4}-.2717613{col 68}{space 3} .0220053
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7676238{col 27}{space 2} .2654191{col 38}{space 1}   -2.89{col 47}{space 3}0.004{col 55}{space 4}-1.287836{col 68}{space 3}-.2474119
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.156333{col 27}{space 2} .8243313{col 38}{space 1}   -0.19{col 47}{space 3}0.850{col 55}{space 4}-1.771993{col 68}{space 3} 1.459327
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.196648{col 27}{space 2} .0955018{col 38}{space 1}   -2.06{col 47}{space 3}0.039{col 55}{space 4}-.3838281{col 68}{space 3} -.009468
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0426546{col 27}{space 2} .1706909{col 38}{space 1}    0.25{col 47}{space 3}0.803{col 55}{space 4}-.2918933{col 68}{space 3} .3772025
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.4536351{col 27}{space 2} .2507858{col 38}{space 1}   -1.81{col 47}{space 3}0.070{col 55}{space 4}-.9451663{col 68}{space 3} .0378961
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1099638{col 27}{space 2} .0847748{col 38}{space 1}    1.30{col 47}{space 3}0.195{col 55}{space 4}-.0561918{col 68}{space 3} .2761195
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3656435{col 27}{space 2} .0982255{col 38}{space 1}    3.72{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4}  .173125{col 68}{space 3}  .558162
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0047148{col 27}{space 2} .2020341{col 38}{space 1}    0.02{col 47}{space 3}0.981{col 55}{space 4}-.3912648{col 68}{space 3} .4006944
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0011319{col 27}{space 2} .0006472{col 38}{space 1}    1.75{col 47}{space 3}0.080{col 55}{space 4}-.0001366{col 68}{space 3} .0024003
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo model11
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox verification defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if localcf==0 & unilateral==0 & exclude2 !=1, nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-682.84702
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-657.56072
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-656.38699
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-656.38435
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-656.38435
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-656.38435

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     7,802
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         147
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      234611
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}    204.18
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-656.38435             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 1}verification {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3909799{col 27}{space 2} .2174295{col 38}{space 1}   -1.80{col 47}{space 3}0.072{col 55}{space 4} -.817134{col 68}{space 3} .0351741
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.8262315{col 27}{space 2} .2529667{col 38}{space 1}   -3.27{col 47}{space 3}0.001{col 55}{space 4}-1.322037{col 68}{space 3}-.3304259
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.2405113{col 27}{space 2} .8135847{col 38}{space 1}   -0.30{col 47}{space 3}0.768{col 55}{space 4}-1.835108{col 68}{space 3} 1.354085
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.1778166{col 27}{space 2} .0923035{col 38}{space 1}   -1.93{col 47}{space 3}0.054{col 55}{space 4}-.3587282{col 68}{space 3}  .003095
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0391808{col 27}{space 2} .1707706{col 38}{space 1}    0.23{col 47}{space 3}0.819{col 55}{space 4}-.2955234{col 68}{space 3}  .373885
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.4411621{col 27}{space 2} .2607595{col 38}{space 1}   -1.69{col 47}{space 3}0.091{col 55}{space 4}-.9522413{col 68}{space 3} .0699172
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1136056{col 27}{space 2} .0819081{col 38}{space 1}    1.39{col 47}{space 3}0.165{col 55}{space 4}-.0469313{col 68}{space 3} .2741425
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3544672{col 27}{space 2} .1096359{col 38}{space 1}    3.23{col 47}{space 3}0.001{col 55}{space 4} .1395848{col 68}{space 3} .5693496
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0170857{col 27}{space 2} .2161099{col 38}{space 1}   -0.08{col 47}{space 3}0.937{col 55}{space 4}-.4406535{col 68}{space 3}  .406482
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0010482{col 27}{space 2} .0006628{col 38}{space 1}    1.58{col 47}{space 3}0.114{col 55}{space 4} -.000251{col 68}{space 3} .0023473
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo model12
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox violations defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if localcf==0 & unilateral==0 & exclude2 !=1, nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-682.84702
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-658.74443
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -657.6144
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-657.61256
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-657.61256
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-657.61256

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     7,802
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         147
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      234611
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}    219.75
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-657.61256             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 3}violations {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0860819{col 27}{space 2} .1771655{col 38}{space 1}    0.49{col 47}{space 3}0.627{col 55}{space 4}-.2611561{col 68}{space 3} .4333199
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.8776127{col 27}{space 2} .2470935{col 38}{space 1}   -3.55{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4}-1.361907{col 68}{space 3}-.3933183
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.2827866{col 27}{space 2} .8038903{col 38}{space 1}   -0.35{col 47}{space 3}0.725{col 55}{space 4}-1.858383{col 68}{space 3} 1.292809
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.1699213{col 27}{space 2}  .094098{col 38}{space 1}   -1.81{col 47}{space 3}0.071{col 55}{space 4}-.3543499{col 68}{space 3} .0145074
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0437999{col 27}{space 2} .1662374{col 38}{space 1}    0.26{col 47}{space 3}0.792{col 55}{space 4}-.2820194{col 68}{space 3} .3696192
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.4847266{col 27}{space 2} .2644869{col 38}{space 1}   -1.83{col 47}{space 3}0.067{col 55}{space 4}-1.003111{col 68}{space 3} .0336581
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1183017{col 27}{space 2} .0823128{col 38}{space 1}    1.44{col 47}{space 3}0.151{col 55}{space 4}-.0430285{col 68}{space 3} .2796318
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3179642{col 27}{space 2} .1052855{col 38}{space 1}    3.02{col 47}{space 3}0.003{col 55}{space 4} .1116085{col 68}{space 3}   .52432
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0796817{col 27}{space 2} .2166766{col 38}{space 1}   -0.37{col 47}{space 3}0.713{col 55}{space 4}-.5043601{col 68}{space 3} .3449966
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0010819{col 27}{space 2} .0006444{col 38}{space 1}    1.68{col 47}{space 3}0.093{col 55}{space 4} -.000181{col 68}{space 3} .0023448
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo model13
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox commission defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if localcf==0 & unilateral==0 & exclude2 !=1, nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-682.84702
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-658.79454
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-657.66202
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -657.6604
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -657.6604
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -657.6604

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     7,802
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         147
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      234611
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}    231.70
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res} -657.6604             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 3}commission {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0580287{col 27}{space 2} .1882872{col 38}{space 1}    0.31{col 47}{space 3}0.758{col 55}{space 4}-.3110074{col 68}{space 3} .4270648
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.8813827{col 27}{space 2}  .264326{col 38}{space 1}   -3.33{col 47}{space 3}0.001{col 55}{space 4}-1.399452{col 68}{space 3}-.3633132
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.2633723{col 27}{space 2} .8004295{col 38}{space 1}   -0.33{col 47}{space 3}0.742{col 55}{space 4}-1.832185{col 68}{space 3} 1.305441
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.1720263{col 27}{space 2} .0920873{col 38}{space 1}   -1.87{col 47}{space 3}0.062{col 55}{space 4}-.3525141{col 68}{space 3} .0084615
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0395234{col 27}{space 2} .1637943{col 38}{space 1}    0.24{col 47}{space 3}0.809{col 55}{space 4}-.2815075{col 68}{space 3} .3605543
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.471834{col 27}{space 2}  .252794{col 38}{space 1}   -1.87{col 47}{space 3}0.062{col 55}{space 4}-.9673011{col 68}{space 3} .0236331
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1231371{col 27}{space 2} .0800318{col 38}{space 1}    1.54{col 47}{space 3}0.124{col 55}{space 4}-.0337225{col 68}{space 3} .2799966
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .310891{col 27}{space 2} .1031009{col 38}{space 1}    3.02{col 47}{space 3}0.003{col 55}{space 4} .1088169{col 68}{space 3} .5129652
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0898438{col 27}{space 2} .2089854{col 38}{space 1}   -0.43{col 47}{space 3}0.667{col 55}{space 4}-.4994477{col 68}{space 3}   .31976
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0011113{col 27}{space 2} .0006587{col 38}{space 1}    1.69{col 47}{space 3}0.092{col 55}{space 4}-.0001797{col 68}{space 3} .0024023
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo model14
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox  anyprov defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if localcf==0 & unilateral==0 & exclude2 !=1, nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-682.84702
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-656.31476
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-655.43589
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-655.43389
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-655.43389
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-655.43389

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     7,802
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         147
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      234611
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}    219.60
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-655.43389             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}anyprov {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.406503{col 27}{space 2} .2336786{col 38}{space 1}   -1.74{col 47}{space 3}0.082{col 55}{space 4}-.8645047{col 68}{space 3} .0514987
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7714229{col 27}{space 2} .2768425{col 38}{space 1}   -2.79{col 47}{space 3}0.005{col 55}{space 4}-1.314024{col 68}{space 3}-.2288214
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.1212126{col 27}{space 2} .8911886{col 38}{space 1}   -0.14{col 47}{space 3}0.892{col 55}{space 4} -1.86791{col 68}{space 3} 1.625485
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.2259927{col 27}{space 2} .1007046{col 38}{space 1}   -2.24{col 47}{space 3}0.025{col 55}{space 4}-.4233702{col 68}{space 3}-.0286153
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0693359{col 27}{space 2} .1759619{col 38}{space 1}    0.39{col 47}{space 3}0.694{col 55}{space 4}-.2755431{col 68}{space 3} .4142149
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.4405232{col 27}{space 2} .2583747{col 38}{space 1}   -1.70{col 47}{space 3}0.088{col 55}{space 4}-.9469283{col 68}{space 3} .0658819
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1233638{col 27}{space 2} .0866108{col 38}{space 1}    1.42{col 47}{space 3}0.154{col 55}{space 4}-.0463902{col 68}{space 3} .2931177
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3706412{col 27}{space 2} .0970866{col 38}{space 1}    3.82{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .1803548{col 68}{space 3} .5609275
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0404576{col 27}{space 2} .2144412{col 38}{space 1}   -0.19{col 47}{space 3}0.850{col 55}{space 4}-.4607546{col 68}{space 3} .3798394
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .001214{col 27}{space 2} .0006258{col 38}{space 1}    1.94{col 47}{space 3}0.052{col 55}{space 4}-.0000127{col 68}{space 3} .0024406
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo model15
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab model11 model12 model13 model14 model15 , cells(b(star fmt(3)) p(par fmt(2))) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01) scalars("N_fail Conflict Terminations" "aic AIC" "bic BIC" "ll Log lik." "chi2 Chi-squared")  label 
{res}
{txt}{hline 95}
{txt}                              (1)            (2)            (3)            (4)            (5)  
{txt}                     analysis t~s   analysis t~s   analysis t~s   analysis t~s   analysis t~s  
{txt}                              b/p            b/p            b/p            b/p            b/p  
{txt}{hline 95}
{txt}Count of CF provis~s{res}       -0.125+                                                             {txt}
                    {res}       (0.10)                                                              {txt}
{txt}Definitive CF       {res}       -0.768**       -0.826**       -0.878**       -0.881**       -0.771**{txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.00)         (0.00)         (0.00)         (0.01)  {txt}
{txt}Electoral democrac~x{res}       -0.156         -0.241         -0.283         -0.263         -0.121  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.85)         (0.77)         (0.73)         (0.74)         (0.89)  {txt}
{txt}Log Population      {res}       -0.197*        -0.178+        -0.170+        -0.172+        -0.226* {txt}
                    {res}       (0.04)         (0.05)         (0.07)         (0.06)         (0.02)  {txt}
{txt}Log GDP per capita  {res}        0.043          0.039          0.044          0.040          0.069  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.80)         (0.82)         (0.79)         (0.81)         (0.69)  {txt}
{txt}UCDP Incompatabili~n{res}       -0.454+        -0.441+        -0.485+        -0.472+        -0.441+ {txt}
                    {res}       (0.07)         (0.09)         (0.07)         (0.06)         (0.09)  {txt}
{txt}Count of other act~ {res}        0.110          0.114          0.118          0.123          0.123  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.19)         (0.17)         (0.15)         (0.12)         (0.15)  {txt}
{txt}Count of dyads in ~t{res}        0.366**        0.354**        0.318**        0.311**        0.371**{txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.00)         (0.00)         (0.00)         (0.00)  {txt}
{txt}Peacekeeping mission{res}        0.005         -0.017         -0.080         -0.090         -0.040  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.98)         (0.94)         (0.71)         (0.67)         (0.85)  {txt}
{txt}Lag BD 1 month      {res}        0.001+         0.001          0.001+         0.001+         0.001+ {txt}
                    {res}       (0.08)         (0.11)         (0.09)         (0.09)         (0.05)  {txt}
{txt}verification        {res}                      -0.391+                                              {txt}
                    {res}                      (0.07)                                               {txt}
{txt}violations          {res}                                      0.086                                {txt}
                    {res}                                     (0.63)                                {txt}
{txt}commission          {res}                                                     0.058                 {txt}
                    {res}                                                    (0.76)                 {txt}
{txt}Any compliance pro~n{res}                                                                   -0.407+ {txt}
                    {res}                                                                   (0.08)  {txt}
{txt}{hline 95}
{txt}Observations        {res}         7802           7802           7802           7802           7802  {txt}
{txt}Conflict Terminati~s{res}          147            147            147            147            147  {txt}
{txt}AIC                 {res}       1332.8         1332.8         1335.2         1335.3         1330.9  {txt}
{txt}BIC                 {res}       1402.4         1402.4         1404.8         1404.9         1400.5  {txt}
{txt}Log lik.            {res}       -656.4         -656.4         -657.6         -657.7         -655.4  {txt}
{txt}Chi-squared         {res}        241.6          204.2          219.8          231.7          219.6  {txt}
{txt}{hline 95}

{com}. 
. 
. *****************************Robustness Checks*************************************
. 
. 
. *Online Appendix Table 1: Not excluding local and unilateral
. *Models OA1-OA4
. 
. stset duration1, failure (term_eithera) id(cf_id)

                {txt}id:  {res}cf_id
     {txt}failure event:  {res}term_eithera != 0 & term_eithera < .
{txt}obs. time interval:  {res}(duration1[_n-1], duration1]
{txt} exit on or before:  {res}failure

{txt}{hline 78}
{res}     62,914{txt}  total observations
{res}     49,851{txt}  observations begin on or after (first) failure
{hline 78}
{res}     13,063{txt}  observations remaining, representing
{res}        280{txt}  subjects
{res}        280{txt}  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
{res}    393,353{txt}  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t = {res}        0
                                     {txt}earliest observed entry t = {res}        0
                                          {txt}last observed exit t = {res}   10,849
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. stcox prelim_cf defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if unilateral==0 & exclude2 !=1, nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-805.95025
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-771.01736
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-769.93529
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-769.92816
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-769.92816
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-769.92816

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         214             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     8,134
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         170
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      244288
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}    279.49
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-769.92816             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.6118812{col 27}{space 2} .1999337{col 38}{space 1}   -3.06{col 47}{space 3}0.002{col 55}{space 4}-1.003744{col 68}{space 3}-.2200183
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.153684{col 27}{space 2} .2995997{col 38}{space 1}   -3.85{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4}-1.740889{col 68}{space 3}-.5664796
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.2133852{col 27}{space 2} .9260233{col 38}{space 1}   -0.23{col 47}{space 3}0.818{col 55}{space 4}-2.028357{col 68}{space 3} 1.601587
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.265216{col 27}{space 2} .0982269{col 38}{space 1}   -2.70{col 47}{space 3}0.007{col 55}{space 4}-.4577372{col 68}{space 3}-.0726947
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}   .17291{col 27}{space 2} .1716264{col 38}{space 1}    1.01{col 47}{space 3}0.314{col 55}{space 4}-.1634716{col 68}{space 3} .5092916
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3055426{col 27}{space 2} .2331717{col 38}{space 1}   -1.31{col 47}{space 3}0.190{col 55}{space 4}-.7625506{col 68}{space 3} .1514655
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1525265{col 27}{space 2} .0808977{col 38}{space 1}    1.89{col 47}{space 3}0.059{col 55}{space 4}  -.00603{col 68}{space 3}  .311083
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3629127{col 27}{space 2} .0952708{col 38}{space 1}    3.81{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .1761853{col 68}{space 3} .5496401
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0589202{col 27}{space 2} .1994925{col 38}{space 1}   -0.30{col 47}{space 3}0.768{col 55}{space 4}-.4499182{col 68}{space 3} .3320779
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0017618{col 27}{space 2}  .000603{col 38}{space 1}    2.92{col 47}{space 3}0.003{col 55}{space 4} .0005799{col 68}{space 3} .0029437
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOA1
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox  defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if unilateral==0 & exclude2 !=1 & coh==0 , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-345.43334
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-329.86102
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-329.04601
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-329.04407
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-329.04407
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-329.04407

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         116             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     6,078
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}          82
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      183271
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}9{txt})     =  {res}     80.84
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-329.04407             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:39} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.9122716{col 27}{space 2} .2916153{col 38}{space 1}   -3.13{col 47}{space 3}0.002{col 55}{space 4}-1.483827{col 68}{space 3} -.340716
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.778654{col 27}{space 2} 1.267191{col 38}{space 1}   -1.40{col 47}{space 3}0.160{col 55}{space 4}-4.262302{col 68}{space 3} .7049941
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0192422{col 27}{space 2} .1405642{col 38}{space 1}   -0.14{col 47}{space 3}0.891{col 55}{space 4} -.294743{col 68}{space 3} .2562585
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.1852113{col 27}{space 2} .1583562{col 38}{space 1}   -1.17{col 47}{space 3}0.242{col 55}{space 4}-.4955838{col 68}{space 3} .1251612
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7188706{col 27}{space 2}  .382446{col 38}{space 1}   -1.88{col 47}{space 3}0.060{col 55}{space 4}-1.468451{col 68}{space 3} .0307098
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0751157{col 27}{space 2}  .178498{col 38}{space 1}    0.42{col 47}{space 3}0.674{col 55}{space 4}-.2747339{col 68}{space 3} .4249654
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1983294{col 27}{space 2} .1321174{col 38}{space 1}    1.50{col 47}{space 3}0.133{col 55}{space 4}-.0606159{col 68}{space 3} .4572747
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0549406{col 27}{space 2} .2368193{col 38}{space 1}   -0.23{col 47}{space 3}0.817{col 55}{space 4}-.5190979{col 68}{space 3} .4092167
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0014889{col 27}{space 2} .0010158{col 38}{space 1}    1.47{col 47}{space 3}0.143{col 55}{space 4}-.0005019{col 68}{space 3} .0034798
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOA2
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox prelim_cf defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if local==0 & exclude2 !=1, nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -721.7577
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-695.38054
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-694.56463
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-694.56247
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-694.56247
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-694.56247

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         201             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     8,578
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         153
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      258038
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}    233.60
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-694.56247             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:44} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.5160783{col 27}{space 2} .2269966{col 38}{space 1}   -2.27{col 47}{space 3}0.023{col 55}{space 4}-.9609835{col 68}{space 3}-.0711731
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.119937{col 27}{space 2} .2648867{col 38}{space 1}   -4.23{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4}-1.639105{col 68}{space 3}-.6007687
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3234047{col 27}{space 2} .8962719{col 38}{space 1}   -0.36{col 47}{space 3}0.718{col 55}{space 4}-2.080065{col 68}{space 3} 1.433256
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.2110362{col 27}{space 2} .1029173{col 38}{space 1}   -2.05{col 47}{space 3}0.040{col 55}{space 4}-.4127504{col 68}{space 3} -.009322
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0168434{col 27}{space 2} .1503627{col 38}{space 1}    0.11{col 47}{space 3}0.911{col 55}{space 4}-.2778621{col 68}{space 3} .3115488
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3680041{col 27}{space 2} .2352091{col 38}{space 1}   -1.56{col 47}{space 3}0.118{col 55}{space 4}-.8290055{col 68}{space 3} .0929973
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1192975{col 27}{space 2} .0828743{col 38}{space 1}    1.44{col 47}{space 3}0.150{col 55}{space 4}-.0431331{col 68}{space 3} .2817281
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3365217{col 27}{space 2} .0956053{col 38}{space 1}    3.52{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .1491388{col 68}{space 3} .5239047
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0889186{col 27}{space 2} .2422627{col 38}{space 1}   -0.37{col 47}{space 3}0.714{col 55}{space 4}-.5637447{col 68}{space 3} .3859075
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0015512{col 27}{space 2} .0005813{col 38}{space 1}    2.67{col 47}{space 3}0.008{col 55}{space 4} .0004118{col 68}{space 3} .0026906
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOA3
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox  defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if local !=1 & coh==0 & exclude2 !=1 , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-303.09479
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-290.92735
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-290.34317
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-290.34282
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-290.34282
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-290.34282

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         107             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     6,047
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}          73
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      182464
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}9{txt})     =  {res}     51.07
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-290.34282             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:39} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.8866658{col 27}{space 2} .3115009{col 38}{space 1}   -2.85{col 47}{space 3}0.004{col 55}{space 4}-1.497196{col 68}{space 3}-.2761352
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.345329{col 27}{space 2} 1.239214{col 38}{space 1}   -1.09{col 47}{space 3}0.278{col 55}{space 4}-3.774144{col 68}{space 3} 1.083485
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0418356{col 27}{space 2} .1480537{col 38}{space 1}   -0.28{col 47}{space 3}0.778{col 55}{space 4}-.3320155{col 68}{space 3} .2483444
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.2490365{col 27}{space 2} .1478948{col 38}{space 1}   -1.68{col 47}{space 3}0.092{col 55}{space 4}-.5389049{col 68}{space 3} .0408319
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7335141{col 27}{space 2} .4008385{col 38}{space 1}   -1.83{col 47}{space 3}0.067{col 55}{space 4}-1.519143{col 68}{space 3} .0521149
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0889672{col 27}{space 2} .1915572{col 38}{space 1}    0.46{col 47}{space 3}0.642{col 55}{space 4} -.286478{col 68}{space 3} .4644125
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .2061228{col 27}{space 2} .1399817{col 38}{space 1}    1.47{col 47}{space 3}0.141{col 55}{space 4}-.0682363{col 68}{space 3} .4804819
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0016099{col 27}{space 2} .2454753{col 38}{space 1}    0.01{col 47}{space 3}0.995{col 55}{space 4}-.4795128{col 68}{space 3} .4827326
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0007277{col 27}{space 2} .0011351{col 38}{space 1}    0.64{col 47}{space 3}0.521{col 55}{space 4}-.0014971{col 68}{space 3} .0029525
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOA4
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab modelOA1 modelOA2 modelOA3 modelOA4 , cells(b(star fmt(3)) p(par fmt(2))) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01) scalars("N_fail Conflict Terminations" "aic AIC" "bic BIC" "ll Log lik." "chi2 Chi-squared")  label 
{res}
{txt}{hline 80}
{txt}                              (1)            (2)            (3)            (4)  
{txt}                     analysis t~s   analysis t~s   analysis t~s   analysis t~s  
{txt}                              b/p            b/p            b/p            b/p  
{txt}{hline 80}
{txt}Preliminary CF no ~n{res}       -0.612**                      -0.516*                {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)                        (0.02)                 {txt}
{txt}Definitive CF       {res}       -1.154**       -0.912**       -1.120**       -0.887**{txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.00)         (0.00)         (0.00)  {txt}
{txt}Electoral democrac~x{res}       -0.213         -1.779         -0.323         -1.345  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.82)         (0.16)         (0.72)         (0.28)  {txt}
{txt}Log Population      {res}       -0.265**       -0.019         -0.211*        -0.042  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.01)         (0.89)         (0.04)         (0.78)  {txt}
{txt}Log GDP per capita  {res}        0.173         -0.185          0.017         -0.249+ {txt}
                    {res}       (0.31)         (0.24)         (0.91)         (0.09)  {txt}
{txt}UCDP Incompatabili~n{res}       -0.306         -0.719+        -0.368         -0.734+ {txt}
                    {res}       (0.19)         (0.06)         (0.12)         (0.07)  {txt}
{txt}Count of other act~ {res}        0.153+         0.075          0.119          0.089  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.06)         (0.67)         (0.15)         (0.64)  {txt}
{txt}Count of dyads in ~t{res}        0.363**        0.198          0.337**        0.206  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.13)         (0.00)         (0.14)  {txt}
{txt}Peacekeeping mission{res}       -0.059         -0.055         -0.089          0.002  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.77)         (0.82)         (0.71)         (0.99)  {txt}
{txt}Lag BD 1 month      {res}        0.002**        0.001          0.002**        0.001  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.14)         (0.01)         (0.52)  {txt}
{txt}{hline 80}
{txt}Observations        {res}         8134           6078           8578           6047  {txt}
{txt}Conflict Terminati~s{res}          170             82            153             73  {txt}
{txt}AIC                 {res}       1559.9          676.1         1409.1          598.7  {txt}
{txt}BIC                 {res}       1629.9          736.5         1479.7          659.1  {txt}
{txt}Log lik.            {res}       -769.9         -329.0         -694.6         -290.3  {txt}
{txt}Chi-squared         {res}        279.5          80.84          233.6          51.07  {txt}
{txt}{hline 80}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. *Online Appendix Table 2: Exlcuding those with fixed time and those longer than a year 
. *Models OA5-OA8
. 
. stcox prelim_cf defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if  unilateral==0 &  local==0 & exclude2 !=1 & fixed1 !=1 , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -582.8377
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-558.26171
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-557.71261
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-557.71228
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-557.71228

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         170             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     7,422
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         128
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      223332
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}    293.74
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-557.71228             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:41} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.6424699{col 27}{space 2} .2516118{col 38}{space 1}   -2.55{col 47}{space 3}0.011{col 55}{space 4} -1.13562{col 68}{space 3}-.1493198
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.127974{col 27}{space 2} .3078011{col 38}{space 1}   -3.66{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4}-1.731253{col 68}{space 3}-.5246948
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.5312595{col 27}{space 2} .8914358{col 38}{space 1}   -0.60{col 47}{space 3}0.551{col 55}{space 4}-2.278442{col 68}{space 3} 1.215923
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.2805186{col 27}{space 2} .0875768{col 38}{space 1}   -3.20{col 47}{space 3}0.001{col 55}{space 4} -.452166{col 68}{space 3}-.1088711
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0314677{col 27}{space 2} .1547338{col 38}{space 1}    0.20{col 47}{space 3}0.839{col 55}{space 4}-.2718051{col 68}{space 3} .3347404
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.4014722{col 27}{space 2} .2777864{col 38}{space 1}   -1.45{col 47}{space 3}0.148{col 55}{space 4}-.9459235{col 68}{space 3}  .142979
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1692495{col 27}{space 2} .0980106{col 38}{space 1}    1.73{col 47}{space 3}0.084{col 55}{space 4}-.0228477{col 68}{space 3} .3613467
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3585004{col 27}{space 2} .0930509{col 38}{space 1}    3.85{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .1761241{col 68}{space 3} .5408768
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1455739{col 27}{space 2} .2032061{col 38}{space 1}    0.72{col 47}{space 3}0.474{col 55}{space 4}-.2527028{col 68}{space 3} .5438506
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0014134{col 27}{space 2} .0006549{col 38}{space 1}    2.16{col 47}{space 3}0.031{col 55}{space 4} .0001299{col 68}{space 3} .0026969
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOA5
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox  defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if unilateral==0 & local !=1 & coh==0 & fixed1 !=1 & exclude2 !=1 , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-288.04767
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-277.03515
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-276.49269
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-276.49218
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-276.49218
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-276.49218

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         103             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     5,729
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}          70
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      172822
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}9{txt})     =  {res}     50.56
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-276.49218             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:38} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.8043841{col 27}{space 2} .3071739{col 38}{space 1}   -2.62{col 47}{space 3}0.009{col 55}{space 4}-1.406434{col 68}{space 3}-.2023344
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.461074{col 27}{space 2} 1.249544{col 38}{space 1}   -1.17{col 47}{space 3}0.242{col 55}{space 4}-3.910136{col 68}{space 3} .9879874
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0856888{col 27}{space 2} .1450676{col 38}{space 1}   -0.59{col 47}{space 3}0.555{col 55}{space 4}-.3700162{col 68}{space 3} .1986385
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.2034525{col 27}{space 2} .1515611{col 38}{space 1}   -1.34{col 47}{space 3}0.179{col 55}{space 4}-.5005068{col 68}{space 3} .0936017
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  -.64087{col 27}{space 2} .3897101{col 38}{space 1}   -1.64{col 47}{space 3}0.100{col 55}{space 4}-1.404688{col 68}{space 3} .1229477
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1058465{col 27}{space 2} .2022067{col 38}{space 1}    0.52{col 47}{space 3}0.601{col 55}{space 4}-.2904713{col 68}{space 3} .5021644
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1879845{col 27}{space 2} .1393601{col 38}{space 1}    1.35{col 47}{space 3}0.177{col 55}{space 4}-.0851562{col 68}{space 3} .4611251
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0153067{col 27}{space 2} .2351764{col 38}{space 1}   -0.07{col 47}{space 3}0.948{col 55}{space 4}-.4762441{col 68}{space 3} .4456306
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0006978{col 27}{space 2} .0011213{col 38}{space 1}    0.62{col 47}{space 3}0.534{col 55}{space 4}   -.0015{col 68}{space 3} .0028956
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOA6
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox prelim_cf defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if unilateral==0 &  local==0 & exclude2 !=1 & duration1<365 , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-569.38977
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-531.60377
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-530.57739
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -530.5676
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -530.5676
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -530.5676

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     1,223
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         118
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}       34350
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}    216.65
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res} -530.5676             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7809957{col 27}{space 2} .2648294{col 38}{space 1}   -2.95{col 47}{space 3}0.003{col 55}{space 4}-1.300052{col 68}{space 3}-.2619396
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.518779{col 27}{space 2} .4454003{col 38}{space 1}   -3.41{col 47}{space 3}0.001{col 55}{space 4}-2.391747{col 68}{space 3}-.6458101
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3268054{col 27}{space 2}  1.14166{col 38}{space 1}   -0.29{col 47}{space 3}0.775{col 55}{space 4}-2.564417{col 68}{space 3} 1.910806
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.4046781{col 27}{space 2} .1356937{col 38}{space 1}   -2.98{col 47}{space 3}0.003{col 55}{space 4} -.670633{col 68}{space 3}-.1387233
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .2587493{col 27}{space 2} .1851779{col 38}{space 1}    1.40{col 47}{space 3}0.162{col 55}{space 4}-.1041927{col 68}{space 3} .6216914
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.4961574{col 27}{space 2} .2983518{col 38}{space 1}   -1.66{col 47}{space 3}0.096{col 55}{space 4}-1.080916{col 68}{space 3} .0886015
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0960633{col 27}{space 2} .1324575{col 38}{space 1}    0.73{col 47}{space 3}0.468{col 55}{space 4}-.1635487{col 68}{space 3} .3556753
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .4777751{col 27}{space 2} .1227178{col 38}{space 1}    3.89{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .2372526{col 68}{space 3} .7182977
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0155859{col 27}{space 2} .2320676{col 38}{space 1}   -0.07{col 47}{space 3}0.946{col 55}{space 4}-.4704299{col 68}{space 3} .4392582
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0012921{col 27}{space 2} .0005529{col 38}{space 1}    2.34{col 47}{space 3}0.019{col 55}{space 4} .0002085{col 68}{space 3} .0023757
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOA7
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox  defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if unilateral==0 & local !=1 & coh==0 & duration1<365 & exclude2 !=1 , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -237.4232
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-222.39563
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-221.26019
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-221.25564
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-221.25564
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-221.25564

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         106             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}       788
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}          55
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}       22405
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}9{txt})     =  {res}     63.73
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-221.25564             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:39} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.067597{col 27}{space 2} .5070442{col 38}{space 1}   -2.11{col 47}{space 3}0.035{col 55}{space 4}-2.061385{col 68}{space 3}-.0738088
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.297514{col 27}{space 2} 1.580876{col 38}{space 1}   -0.82{col 47}{space 3}0.412{col 55}{space 4}-4.395973{col 68}{space 3} 1.800945
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0894101{col 27}{space 2} .1967333{col 38}{space 1}   -0.45{col 47}{space 3}0.649{col 55}{space 4}-.4750003{col 68}{space 3} .2961802
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.1231714{col 27}{space 2}  .203006{col 38}{space 1}   -0.61{col 47}{space 3}0.544{col 55}{space 4}-.5210558{col 68}{space 3}  .274713
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.8940942{col 27}{space 2} .5362911{col 38}{space 1}   -1.67{col 47}{space 3}0.095{col 55}{space 4}-1.945205{col 68}{space 3} .1570172
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1271648{col 27}{space 2} .2245987{col 38}{space 1}    0.57{col 47}{space 3}0.571{col 55}{space 4}-.3130407{col 68}{space 3} .5673702
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3149822{col 27}{space 2}  .153472{col 38}{space 1}    2.05{col 47}{space 3}0.040{col 55}{space 4} .0141827{col 68}{space 3} .6157818
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0378409{col 27}{space 2} .2841661{col 38}{space 1}    0.13{col 47}{space 3}0.894{col 55}{space 4}-.5191145{col 68}{space 3} .5947963
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .000287{col 27}{space 2} .0011578{col 38}{space 1}    0.25{col 47}{space 3}0.804{col 55}{space 4}-.0019822{col 68}{space 3} .0025563
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOA8
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab modelOA5 modelOA6 modelOA7 modelOA8 , cells(b(star fmt(3)) p(par fmt(2))) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01) scalars("N_fail Conflict Terminations" "aic AIC" "bic BIC" "ll Log lik." "chi2 Chi-squared")  label 
{res}
{txt}{hline 80}
{txt}                              (1)            (2)            (3)            (4)  
{txt}                     analysis t~s   analysis t~s   analysis t~s   analysis t~s  
{txt}                              b/p            b/p            b/p            b/p  
{txt}{hline 80}
{txt}Preliminary CF no ~n{res}       -0.642*                       -0.781**               {txt}
                    {res}       (0.01)                        (0.00)                 {txt}
{txt}Definitive CF       {res}       -1.128**       -0.804**       -1.519**       -1.068* {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.01)         (0.00)         (0.04)  {txt}
{txt}Electoral democrac~x{res}       -0.531         -1.461         -0.327         -1.298  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.55)         (0.24)         (0.77)         (0.41)  {txt}
{txt}Log Population      {res}       -0.281**       -0.086         -0.405**       -0.089  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.55)         (0.00)         (0.65)  {txt}
{txt}Log GDP per capita  {res}        0.031         -0.203          0.259         -0.123  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.84)         (0.18)         (0.16)         (0.54)  {txt}
{txt}UCDP Incompatabili~n{res}       -0.401         -0.641         -0.496+        -0.894+ {txt}
                    {res}       (0.15)         (0.10)         (0.10)         (0.10)  {txt}
{txt}Count of other act~ {res}        0.169+         0.106          0.096          0.127  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.08)         (0.60)         (0.47)         (0.57)  {txt}
{txt}Count of dyads in ~t{res}        0.359**        0.188          0.478**        0.315* {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.18)         (0.00)         (0.04)  {txt}
{txt}Peacekeeping mission{res}        0.146         -0.015         -0.016          0.038  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.47)         (0.95)         (0.95)         (0.89)  {txt}
{txt}Lag BD 1 month      {res}        0.001*         0.001          0.001*         0.000  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.03)         (0.53)         (0.02)         (0.80)  {txt}
{txt}{hline 80}
{txt}Observations        {res}         7422           5729           1223            788  {txt}
{txt}Conflict Terminati~s{res}          128             70            118             55  {txt}
{txt}AIC                 {res}       1135.4          571.0         1081.1          460.5  {txt}
{txt}BIC                 {res}       1204.5          630.9         1132.2          502.5  {txt}
{txt}Log lik.            {res}       -557.7         -276.5         -530.6         -221.3  {txt}
{txt}Chi-squared         {res}        293.7          50.56          216.6          63.73  {txt}
{txt}{hline 80}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * Online Appendix Table 3: Testing alterniatve PA-X measures - transition to politics 
. 
. *Models OA9-OA12
. 
. stcox prelim_cf  polpartrans v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko  lag_bdths_1    if unilateral==0 &  local==0 & exclude2 !=1  , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-672.52586
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -648.1065
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-647.42576
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-647.42427
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-647.42427
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-647.42427

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         188             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     7,761
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         145
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      233383
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}    179.37
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-647.42427             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.484128{col 27}{space 2} .2527175{col 38}{space 1}   -1.92{col 47}{space 3}0.055{col 55}{space 4}-.9794452{col 68}{space 3} .0111892
{txt}{space 2}polpartrans {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.8165603{col 27}{space 2} .5155661{col 38}{space 1}   -1.58{col 47}{space 3}0.113{col 55}{space 4}-1.827051{col 68}{space 3} .1939307
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0018066{col 27}{space 2} .8098919{col 38}{space 1}    0.00{col 47}{space 3}0.998{col 55}{space 4}-1.585552{col 68}{space 3} 1.589166
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.2967219{col 27}{space 2} .1020545{col 38}{space 1}   -2.91{col 47}{space 3}0.004{col 55}{space 4}-.4967451{col 68}{space 3}-.0966988
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1976446{col 27}{space 2}  .156686{col 38}{space 1}    1.26{col 47}{space 3}0.207{col 55}{space 4}-.1094542{col 68}{space 3} .5047435
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3913236{col 27}{space 2} .2468576{col 38}{space 1}   -1.59{col 47}{space 3}0.113{col 55}{space 4}-.8751555{col 68}{space 3} .0925084
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .198251{col 27}{space 2} .0833994{col 38}{space 1}    2.38{col 47}{space 3}0.017{col 55}{space 4} .0347911{col 68}{space 3}  .361711
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .4015481{col 27}{space 2} .0966947{col 38}{space 1}    4.15{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .2120299{col 68}{space 3} .5910663
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.008722{col 27}{space 2} .1814773{col 38}{space 1}   -0.05{col 47}{space 3}0.962{col 55}{space 4}-.3644109{col 68}{space 3}  .346967
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0012923{col 27}{space 2} .0005806{col 38}{space 1}    2.23{col 47}{space 3}0.026{col 55}{space 4} .0001543{col 68}{space 3} .0024303
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT31
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox  polpartrans v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if unilateral==0 & local !=1 & coh==0  & exclude2 !=1 , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-289.45661
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-280.29457
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-279.88595
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-279.88543
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-279.88543
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-279.88543

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         104             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     5,984
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}          70
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      180586
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}9{txt})     =  {res}     51.25
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-279.88543             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:38} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 2}polpartrans {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.4711011{col 27}{space 2} .5171325{col 38}{space 1}   -0.91{col 47}{space 3}0.362{col 55}{space 4}-1.484662{col 68}{space 3} .5424598
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -1.02816{col 27}{space 2} 1.242949{col 38}{space 1}   -0.83{col 47}{space 3}0.408{col 55}{space 4}-3.464295{col 68}{space 3} 1.407976
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.1493381{col 27}{space 2} .1610069{col 38}{space 1}   -0.93{col 47}{space 3}0.354{col 55}{space 4}-.4649059{col 68}{space 3} .1662297
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0617027{col 27}{space 2} .1624579{col 38}{space 1}   -0.38{col 47}{space 3}0.704{col 55}{space 4}-.3801144{col 68}{space 3}  .256709
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.5255717{col 27}{space 2} .3901655{col 38}{space 1}   -1.35{col 47}{space 3}0.178{col 55}{space 4}-1.290282{col 68}{space 3} .2391386
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1889758{col 27}{space 2} .1789898{col 38}{space 1}    1.06{col 47}{space 3}0.291{col 55}{space 4}-.1618378{col 68}{space 3} .5397894
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .2669629{col 27}{space 2} .1329045{col 38}{space 1}    2.01{col 47}{space 3}0.045{col 55}{space 4} .0064749{col 68}{space 3} .5274509
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .016681{col 27}{space 2} .2139813{col 38}{space 1}    0.08{col 47}{space 3}0.938{col 55}{space 4}-.4027146{col 68}{space 3} .4360766
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0006161{col 27}{space 2} .0010334{col 38}{space 1}    0.60{col 47}{space 3}0.551{col 55}{space 4}-.0014094{col 68}{space 3} .0026415
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT32
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox prelim_cf ssrddr2 v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if localcf==0 & unilateral==0 & exclude2 !=1, nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-682.84702
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-659.03395
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-658.33755
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-658.33677
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-658.33677

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     7,802
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         147
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      234611
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}    144.57
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-658.33677             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.4668096{col 27}{space 2} .2527712{col 38}{space 1}   -1.85{col 47}{space 3}0.065{col 55}{space 4} -.962232{col 68}{space 3} .0286128
{txt}{space 6}ssrddr2 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.6311166{col 27}{space 2} .3473448{col 38}{space 1}   -1.82{col 47}{space 3}0.069{col 55}{space 4}  -1.3119{col 68}{space 3} .0496667
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0566953{col 27}{space 2} .8236597{col 38}{space 1}   -0.07{col 47}{space 3}0.945{col 55}{space 4}-1.671039{col 68}{space 3} 1.557648
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.2842619{col 27}{space 2} .0968385{col 38}{space 1}   -2.94{col 47}{space 3}0.003{col 55}{space 4}-.4740618{col 68}{space 3} -.094462
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1804843{col 27}{space 2} .1560155{col 38}{space 1}    1.16{col 47}{space 3}0.247{col 55}{space 4}-.1253005{col 68}{space 3}  .486269
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.430788{col 27}{space 2} .2547115{col 38}{space 1}   -1.69{col 47}{space 3}0.091{col 55}{space 4}-.9300134{col 68}{space 3} .0684374
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .2003967{col 27}{space 2} .0839302{col 38}{space 1}    2.39{col 47}{space 3}0.017{col 55}{space 4} .0358966{col 68}{space 3} .3648968
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3745194{col 27}{space 2} .1030746{col 38}{space 1}    3.63{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .1724969{col 68}{space 3}  .576542
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .032529{col 27}{space 2} .1794913{col 38}{space 1}    0.18{col 47}{space 3}0.856{col 55}{space 4}-.3192675{col 68}{space 3} .3843256
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0012643{col 27}{space 2} .0005965{col 38}{space 1}    2.12{col 47}{space 3}0.034{col 55}{space 4} .0000951{col 68}{space 3} .0024335
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT33
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox  ssrddr2  v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if localcf==0 & unilateral==0 & exclude2 !=1 & coh==0 , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-298.55264
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-288.87946
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-288.42719
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-288.42679
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-288.42679

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         106             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     6,025
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}          72
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      181814
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}9{txt})     =  {res}     43.98
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-288.42679             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:39} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}ssrddr2 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.5414895{col 27}{space 2} .3850836{col 38}{space 1}   -1.41{col 47}{space 3}0.160{col 55}{space 4} -1.29624{col 68}{space 3} .2132606
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.071211{col 27}{space 2} 1.242242{col 38}{space 1}   -0.86{col 47}{space 3}0.389{col 55}{space 4} -3.50596{col 68}{space 3} 1.363538
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.1363126{col 27}{space 2} .1285446{col 38}{space 1}   -1.06{col 47}{space 3}0.289{col 55}{space 4}-.3882554{col 68}{space 3} .1156301
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0771947{col 27}{space 2}  .145368{col 38}{space 1}   -0.53{col 47}{space 3}0.595{col 55}{space 4}-.3621106{col 68}{space 3} .2077213
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.5020514{col 27}{space 2} .3951069{col 38}{space 1}   -1.27{col 47}{space 3}0.204{col 55}{space 4}-1.276447{col 68}{space 3}  .272344
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .2305222{col 27}{space 2} .1966291{col 38}{space 1}    1.17{col 47}{space 3}0.241{col 55}{space 4}-.1548637{col 68}{space 3}  .615908
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .2087056{col 27}{space 2} .1534416{col 38}{space 1}    1.36{col 47}{space 3}0.174{col 55}{space 4}-.0920345{col 68}{space 3} .5094457
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0986752{col 27}{space 2} .2127767{col 38}{space 1}    0.46{col 47}{space 3}0.643{col 55}{space 4}-.3183595{col 68}{space 3} .5157099
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0005276{col 27}{space 2} .0010824{col 38}{space 1}    0.49{col 47}{space 3}0.626{col 55}{space 4}-.0015938{col 68}{space 3} .0026491
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT34
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab modelOAT31 modelOAT32 modelOAT33 modelOAT34 , cells(b(star fmt(3)) p(par fmt(2))) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01) scalars("N_fail Conflict Terminations" "aic AIC" "bic BIC" "ll Log lik." "chi2 Chi-squared")  label 
{res}
{txt}{hline 80}
{txt}                              (1)            (2)            (3)            (4)  
{txt}                     analysis t~s   analysis t~s   analysis t~s   analysis t~s  
{txt}                              b/p            b/p            b/p            b/p  
{txt}{hline 80}
{txt}Preliminary CF no ~n{res}       -0.484+                       -0.467+                {txt}
                    {res}       (0.06)                        (0.06)                 {txt}
{txt}Political Party Tr~){res}       -0.817         -0.471                                {txt}
                    {res}       (0.11)         (0.36)                                {txt}
{txt}Electoral democrac~x{res}        0.002         -1.028         -0.057         -1.071  {txt}
                    {res}       (1.00)         (0.41)         (0.95)         (0.39)  {txt}
{txt}Log Population      {res}       -0.297**       -0.149         -0.284**       -0.136  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.35)         (0.00)         (0.29)  {txt}
{txt}Log GDP per capita  {res}        0.198         -0.062          0.180         -0.077  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.21)         (0.70)         (0.25)         (0.60)  {txt}
{txt}UCDP Incompatabili~n{res}       -0.391         -0.526         -0.431+        -0.502  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.11)         (0.18)         (0.09)         (0.20)  {txt}
{txt}Count of other act~ {res}        0.198*         0.189          0.200*         0.231  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.02)         (0.29)         (0.02)         (0.24)  {txt}
{txt}Count of dyads in ~t{res}        0.402**        0.267*         0.375**        0.209  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.04)         (0.00)         (0.17)  {txt}
{txt}Peacekeeping mission{res}       -0.009          0.017          0.033          0.099  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.96)         (0.94)         (0.86)         (0.64)  {txt}
{txt}Lag BD 1 month      {res}        0.001*         0.001          0.001*         0.001  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.03)         (0.55)         (0.03)         (0.63)  {txt}
{txt}SSR DDR PAX         {res}                                     -0.631+        -0.541  {txt}
                    {res}                                     (0.07)         (0.16)  {txt}
{txt}{hline 80}
{txt}Observations        {res}         7761           5984           7802           6025  {txt}
{txt}Conflict Terminati~s{res}          145             70            147             72  {txt}
{txt}AIC                 {res}       1314.8          577.8         1336.7          594.9  {txt}
{txt}BIC                 {res}       1384.4          638.0         1406.3          655.2  {txt}
{txt}Log lik.            {res}       -647.4         -279.9         -658.3         -288.4  {txt}
{txt}Chi-squared         {res}        179.4          51.25          144.6          43.98  {txt}
{txt}{hline 80}

{com}. 
. 
. * Online Appendix Table 4: Testing alterniatve monitoring with extension / Lagged IVs (prior CF)
. 
. *Models OA13-OA15
. 
. stcox  preliminary_CF_extra_mon defin_cf  v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko  lag_bdths_123     if local==0 & exclude2 !=1  , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -721.7577
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-693.65816
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-692.50697
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-692.49716
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-692.49715
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-692.49715

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         201             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     8,578
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         153
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      258038
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}    247.54
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-692.49715             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 89:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:44} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 24}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 25}{c |}{col 37}    Robust
{col 1}                     _t{col 25}{c |}      Coef.{col 37}   Std. Err.{col 49}      z{col 57}   P>|z|{col 65}     [95% Con{col 78}f. Interval]
{hline 24}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
preliminary_CF_extra_~n {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.5190181{col 37}{space 2} .2174456{col 48}{space 1}   -2.39{col 57}{space 3}0.017{col 65}{space 4}-.9452036{col 78}{space 3}-.0928327
{txt}{space 15}defin_cf {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-1.095336{col 37}{space 2}  .253605{col 48}{space 1}   -4.32{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-1.592393{col 78}{space 3}-.5982795
{txt}{space 10}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.2100882{col 37}{space 2} .8980664{col 48}{space 1}   -0.23{col 57}{space 3}0.815{col 65}{space 4}-1.970266{col 78}{space 3}  1.55009
{txt}{space 19}lpop {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} -.219383{col 37}{space 2}  .099939{col 48}{space 1}   -2.20{col 57}{space 3}0.028{col 65}{space 4}-.4152598{col 78}{space 3}-.0235062
{txt}{space 16}lrgdppc {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0047223{col 37}{space 2} .1547447{col 48}{space 1}   -0.03{col 57}{space 3}0.976{col 65}{space 4}-.3080165{col 78}{space 3} .2985718
{txt}{space 13}government {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.4027977{col 37}{space 2} .2418706{col 48}{space 1}   -1.67{col 57}{space 3}0.096{col 65}{space 4}-.8768554{col 78}{space 3} .0712599
{txt}{space 18}count {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}  .114733{col 37}{space 2} .0876628{col 48}{space 1}    1.31{col 57}{space 3}0.191{col 65}{space 4}-.0570828{col 78}{space 3} .2865489
{txt}{space 12}count_dyads {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .3553575{col 37}{space 2} .0978862{col 48}{space 1}    3.63{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}  .163504{col 78}{space 3}  .547211
{txt}{space 20}pko {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0885564{col 37}{space 2} .2505074{col 48}{space 1}   -0.35{col 57}{space 3}0.724{col 65}{space 4}-.5795419{col 78}{space 3} .4024292
{txt}{space 10}lag_bdths_123 {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .0013821{col 37}{space 2} .0003807{col 48}{space 1}    3.63{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .0006359{col 78}{space 3} .0021284
{txt}{hline 24}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT41
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox prelim_cf defin_cf  v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko  defin_l prelim_l coh_l lag_bdths_1 if localcf==0 & unilateral==0 & exclude2 !=1, nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-682.84702
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -649.1435
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-647.89702
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -647.8955
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -647.8955
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -647.8955

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     7,802
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         147
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      234611
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}13{txt})    =  {res}    383.26
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res} -647.8955             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7791932{col 27}{space 2} .2476518{col 38}{space 1}   -3.15{col 47}{space 3}0.002{col 55}{space 4}-1.264582{col 68}{space 3}-.2938046
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.272919{col 27}{space 2} .2944803{col 38}{space 1}   -4.32{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} -1.85009{col 68}{space 3}-.6957485
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.2787586{col 27}{space 2} .9295132{col 38}{space 1}   -0.30{col 47}{space 3}0.764{col 55}{space 4}-2.100571{col 68}{space 3} 1.543054
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.2897372{col 27}{space 2} .1049024{col 38}{space 1}   -2.76{col 47}{space 3}0.006{col 55}{space 4} -.495342{col 68}{space 3}-.0841323
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0781697{col 27}{space 2} .1645141{col 38}{space 1}    0.48{col 47}{space 3}0.635{col 55}{space 4} -.244272{col 68}{space 3} .4006113
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3275074{col 27}{space 2} .2466122{col 38}{space 1}   -1.33{col 47}{space 3}0.184{col 55}{space 4}-.8108585{col 68}{space 3} .1558437
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1117186{col 27}{space 2}  .085684{col 38}{space 1}    1.30{col 47}{space 3}0.192{col 55}{space 4} -.056219{col 68}{space 3} .2796563
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3453154{col 27}{space 2}  .095134{col 38}{space 1}    3.63{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .1588562{col 68}{space 3} .5317746
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0017951{col 27}{space 2} .1740531{col 38}{space 1}   -0.01{col 47}{space 3}0.992{col 55}{space 4}-.3429329{col 68}{space 3} .3393427
{txt}{space 6}defin_l {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.1086907{col 27}{space 2} .4117887{col 38}{space 1}   -0.26{col 47}{space 3}0.792{col 55}{space 4}-.9157818{col 68}{space 3} .6984004
{txt}{space 5}prelim_l {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}   .33218{col 27}{space 2} .2247289{col 38}{space 1}    1.48{col 47}{space 3}0.139{col 55}{space 4}-.1082806{col 68}{space 3} .7726405
{txt}{space 8}coh_l {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .4953597{col 27}{space 2} .2062547{col 38}{space 1}    2.40{col 47}{space 3}0.016{col 55}{space 4}  .091108{col 68}{space 3} .8996115
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0014467{col 27}{space 2} .0007105{col 38}{space 1}    2.04{col 47}{space 3}0.042{col 55}{space 4} .0000541{col 68}{space 3} .0028393
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT42
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox  defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko defin_l prelim_l coh_l  lag_bdths_1 if localcf==0 & unilateral==0 & exclude2 !=1 & coh==0 , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-298.55264
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-285.64472
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-284.86989
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-284.86716
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-284.86716
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-284.86716

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         106             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     6,025
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}          72
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      181814
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}12{txt})    =  {res}     58.47
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-284.86716             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:39} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.8324596{col 27}{space 2} .3531413{col 38}{space 1}   -2.36{col 47}{space 3}0.018{col 55}{space 4}-1.524604{col 68}{space 3}-.1403154
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.492826{col 27}{space 2} 1.398239{col 38}{space 1}   -1.07{col 47}{space 3}0.286{col 55}{space 4}-4.233325{col 68}{space 3} 1.247673
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0483901{col 27}{space 2}  .153247{col 38}{space 1}   -0.32{col 47}{space 3}0.752{col 55}{space 4}-.3487487{col 68}{space 3} .2519686
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.2319803{col 27}{space 2} .1938683{col 38}{space 1}   -1.20{col 47}{space 3}0.231{col 55}{space 4}-.6119552{col 68}{space 3} .1479945
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.6405342{col 27}{space 2} .4023598{col 38}{space 1}   -1.59{col 47}{space 3}0.111{col 55}{space 4}-1.429145{col 68}{space 3} .1480764
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0497157{col 27}{space 2} .2399898{col 38}{space 1}    0.21{col 47}{space 3}0.836{col 55}{space 4}-.4206557{col 68}{space 3} .5200871
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1930431{col 27}{space 2} .1582228{col 38}{space 1}    1.22{col 47}{space 3}0.222{col 55}{space 4}-.1170678{col 68}{space 3}  .503154
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0643033{col 27}{space 2} .2460161{col 38}{space 1}   -0.26{col 47}{space 3}0.794{col 55}{space 4}-.5464859{col 68}{space 3} .4178793
{txt}{space 6}defin_l {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.5924188{col 27}{space 2} .8557355{col 38}{space 1}   -0.69{col 47}{space 3}0.489{col 55}{space 4} -2.26963{col 68}{space 3} 1.084792
{txt}{space 5}prelim_l {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .2456994{col 27}{space 2} .2425806{col 38}{space 1}    1.01{col 47}{space 3}0.311{col 55}{space 4}-.2297499{col 68}{space 3} .7211486
{txt}{space 8}coh_l {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .2330027{col 27}{space 2} .3768673{col 38}{space 1}    0.62{col 47}{space 3}0.536{col 55}{space 4}-.5056436{col 68}{space 3}  .971649
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0008641{col 27}{space 2} .0011714{col 38}{space 1}    0.74{col 47}{space 3}0.461{col 55}{space 4}-.0014319{col 68}{space 3} .0031601
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT43
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab modelOAT41 modelOAT42 modelOAT43  , cells(b(star fmt(3)) p(par fmt(2))) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01) scalars("N_fail Conflict Terminations" "aic AIC" "bic BIC" "ll Log lik." "chi2 Chi-squared")  label 
{res}
{txt}{hline 65}
{txt}                              (1)            (2)            (3)  
{txt}                     analysis t~s   analysis t~s   analysis t~s  
{txt}                              b/p            b/p            b/p  
{txt}{hline 65}
{txt}preliminary_CF_ext~n{res}       -0.519*                               {txt}
                    {res}       (0.02)                                {txt}
{txt}Definitive CF       {res}       -1.095**       -1.273**       -0.832* {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.00)         (0.02)  {txt}
{txt}Electoral democrac~x{res}       -0.210         -0.279         -1.493  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.82)         (0.76)         (0.29)  {txt}
{txt}Log Population      {res}       -0.219*        -0.290**       -0.048  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.03)         (0.01)         (0.75)  {txt}
{txt}Log GDP per capita  {res}       -0.005          0.078         -0.232  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.98)         (0.63)         (0.23)  {txt}
{txt}UCDP Incompatabili~n{res}       -0.403+        -0.328         -0.641  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.10)         (0.18)         (0.11)  {txt}
{txt}Count of other act~ {res}        0.115          0.112          0.050  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.19)         (0.19)         (0.84)  {txt}
{txt}Count of dyads in ~t{res}        0.355**        0.345**        0.193  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.00)         (0.22)  {txt}
{txt}Peacekeeping mission{res}       -0.089         -0.002         -0.064  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.72)         (0.99)         (0.79)  {txt}
{txt}Lag BD 3 Months     {res}        0.001**                              {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)                                {txt}
{txt}Preliminary CF no ~n{res}                      -0.779**               {txt}
                    {res}                      (0.00)                 {txt}
{txt}Definitive CF Lagged{res}                      -0.109         -0.592  {txt}
                    {res}                      (0.79)         (0.49)  {txt}
{txt}Preliminary CF Lag~d{res}                       0.332          0.246  {txt}
                    {res}                      (0.14)         (0.31)  {txt}
{txt}COH lagged          {res}                       0.495*         0.233  {txt}
                    {res}                      (0.02)         (0.54)  {txt}
{txt}Lag BD 1 month      {res}                       0.001*         0.001  {txt}
                    {res}                      (0.04)         (0.46)  {txt}
{txt}{hline 65}
{txt}Observations        {res}         8578           7802           6025  {txt}
{txt}Conflict Terminati~s{res}          153            147             72  {txt}
{txt}AIC                 {res}       1405.0         1321.8          593.7  {txt}
{txt}BIC                 {res}       1475.6         1412.3          674.2  {txt}
{txt}Log lik.            {res}       -692.5         -647.9         -284.9  {txt}
{txt}Chi-squared         {res}        247.5          383.3          58.47  {txt}
{txt}{hline 65}

{com}. 
. 
. *******Online Appendix Table 5: 
. 
. *Models OA16-OA17 (Duration in weeks)
. 
. stset durationweeks, failure (term_eithera) id(cf_id)

                {txt}id:  {res}cf_id
     {txt}failure event:  {res}term_eithera != 0 & term_eithera < .
{txt}obs. time interval:  {res}(durationweeks[_n-1], durationweeks]
{txt} exit on or before:  {res}failure

{txt}{hline 78}
{res}     62,914{txt}  total observations
{res}     49,851{txt}  observations begin on or after (first) failure
{hline 78}
{res}     13,063{txt}  observations remaining, representing
{res}        280{txt}  subjects
{res}        280{txt}  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
{res} 56,193.286{txt}  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t = {res}        0
                                     {txt}earliest observed entry t = {res}        0
                                          {txt}last observed exit t = {res} 1,549.86
{txt}
{com}. stcox prelim_cf defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if localcf==0 & unilateral==0 & exclude2 !=1, nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}durationweeks
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-682.84702
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-651.56068
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-651.01892
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-651.01798
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-651.01798

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     7,802
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         147
{txt}Time at risk         = {res} 33515.85736
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}    299.53
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-651.01798             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.743246{col 27}{space 2} .2479574{col 38}{space 1}   -3.00{col 47}{space 3}0.003{col 55}{space 4}-1.229234{col 68}{space 3}-.2572583
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.223653{col 27}{space 2} .2942567{col 38}{space 1}   -4.16{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4}-1.800386{col 68}{space 3}-.6469209
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.190748{col 27}{space 2} .9373371{col 38}{space 1}   -0.20{col 47}{space 3}0.839{col 55}{space 4}-2.027895{col 68}{space 3} 1.646399
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3053035{col 27}{space 2} .1017068{col 38}{space 1}   -3.00{col 47}{space 3}0.003{col 55}{space 4}-.5046452{col 68}{space 3}-.1059618
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .110456{col 27}{space 2}  .166518{col 38}{space 1}    0.66{col 47}{space 3}0.507{col 55}{space 4}-.2159132{col 68}{space 3} .4368252
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3954936{col 27}{space 2} .2546317{col 38}{space 1}   -1.55{col 47}{space 3}0.120{col 55}{space 4}-.8945626{col 68}{space 3} .1035753
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1550582{col 27}{space 2} .0895799{col 38}{space 1}    1.73{col 47}{space 3}0.083{col 55}{space 4}-.0205151{col 68}{space 3} .3306315
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3661532{col 27}{space 2} .0965089{col 38}{space 1}    3.79{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .1769993{col 68}{space 3} .5553071
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0393169{col 27}{space 2} .2123866{col 38}{space 1}    0.19{col 47}{space 3}0.853{col 55}{space 4}-.3769533{col 68}{space 3}  .455587
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0013861{col 27}{space 2} .0005765{col 38}{space 1}    2.40{col 47}{space 3}0.016{col 55}{space 4} .0002561{col 68}{space 3} .0025162
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT51
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox  defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if localcf==0 & unilateral==0 & exclude2 !=1 & coh==0 , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}durationweeks
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-298.55264
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-286.41279
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-285.81293
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-285.81254
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-285.81254
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-285.81254

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         106             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     6,025
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}          72
{txt}Time at risk         = {res} 25973.42878
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}9{txt})     =  {res}     51.03
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-285.81254             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:39} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.8868081{col 27}{space 2} .3106138{col 38}{space 1}   -2.86{col 47}{space 3}0.004{col 55}{space 4}  -1.4956{col 68}{space 3}-.2780162
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.396032{col 27}{space 2} 1.266085{col 38}{space 1}   -1.10{col 47}{space 3}0.270{col 55}{space 4}-3.877513{col 68}{space 3} 1.085449
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0425212{col 27}{space 2} .1466663{col 38}{space 1}   -0.29{col 47}{space 3}0.772{col 55}{space 4}-.3299818{col 68}{space 3} .2449395
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.236333{col 27}{space 2} .1547593{col 38}{space 1}   -1.53{col 47}{space 3}0.127{col 55}{space 4}-.5396556{col 68}{space 3} .0669897
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7424551{col 27}{space 2} .4016721{col 38}{space 1}   -1.85{col 47}{space 3}0.065{col 55}{space 4}-1.529718{col 68}{space 3} .0448077
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0783618{col 27}{space 2} .2020658{col 38}{space 1}    0.39{col 47}{space 3}0.698{col 55}{space 4}-.3176799{col 68}{space 3} .4744035
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .2054678{col 27}{space 2}  .138044{col 38}{space 1}    1.49{col 47}{space 3}0.137{col 55}{space 4}-.0650935{col 68}{space 3} .4760291
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0132359{col 27}{space 2} .2411325{col 38}{space 1}   -0.05{col 47}{space 3}0.956{col 55}{space 4} -.485847{col 68}{space 3} .4593751
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0007116{col 27}{space 2} .0011182{col 38}{space 1}    0.64{col 47}{space 3}0.525{col 55}{space 4}-.0014801{col 68}{space 3} .0029033
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT52
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab modelOAT51 modelOAT52  , cells(b(star fmt(3)) p(par fmt(2))) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01) scalars("N_fail Conflict Terminations" "aic AIC" "bic BIC" "ll Log lik." "chi2 Chi-squared")  label 
{res}
{txt}{hline 50}
{txt}                              (1)            (2)  
{txt}                     analysis t~s   analysis t~s  
{txt}                              b/p            b/p  
{txt}{hline 50}
{txt}Preliminary CF no ~n{res}       -0.743**               {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)                 {txt}
{txt}Definitive CF       {res}       -1.224**       -0.887**{txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.00)  {txt}
{txt}Electoral democrac~x{res}       -0.191         -1.396  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.84)         (0.27)  {txt}
{txt}Log Population      {res}       -0.305**       -0.043  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.77)  {txt}
{txt}Log GDP per capita  {res}        0.110         -0.236  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.51)         (0.13)  {txt}
{txt}UCDP Incompatabili~n{res}       -0.395         -0.742+ {txt}
                    {res}       (0.12)         (0.06)  {txt}
{txt}Count of other act~ {res}        0.155+         0.078  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.08)         (0.70)  {txt}
{txt}Count of dyads in ~t{res}        0.366**        0.205  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.14)  {txt}
{txt}Peacekeeping mission{res}        0.039         -0.013  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.85)         (0.96)  {txt}
{txt}Lag BD 1 month      {res}        0.001*         0.001  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.02)         (0.52)  {txt}
{txt}{hline 50}
{txt}Observations        {res}         7802           6025  {txt}
{txt}Conflict Terminati~s{res}          147             72  {txt}
{txt}AIC                 {res}       1322.0          589.6  {txt}
{txt}BIC                 {res}       1391.7          650.0  {txt}
{txt}Log lik.            {res}       -651.0         -285.8  {txt}
{txt}Chi-squared         {res}        299.5          51.03  {txt}
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. 
. *Models OA18-OA19 (Only GED Events on specific day) 
. 
. stset duration_25threshold_gedday, failure (term_either_25_Gedday) id(cf_id)

                {txt}id:  {res}cf_id
     {txt}failure event:  {res}term_either_25_Gedday != 0 & term_either_25_Gedday < .
{txt}obs. time interval:  {res}(duration_25threshold_gedday[_n-1], duration_25threshold_gedday]
{txt} exit on or before:  {res}failure

{txt}{hline 78}
{res}     62,914{txt}  total observations
{res}     48,838{txt}  observations begin on or after (first) failure
{hline 78}
{res}     14,076{txt}  observations remaining, representing
{res}        280{txt}  subjects
{res}        280{txt}  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
{res}    424,185{txt}  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t = {res}        0
                                     {txt}earliest observed entry t = {res}        0
                                          {txt}last observed exit t = {res}   10,849
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox prelim_cf defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if unilateral==0 &  local==0 & exclude_25gedday !=1  , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_either_25_Gedday
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration_25threshold_gedday
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-667.89266
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -638.2401
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-637.66176
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-637.65968
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-637.65968
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-637.65968

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     8,458
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         143
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      254576
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}    154.39
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-637.65968             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.6975604{col 27}{space 2} .2625723{col 38}{space 1}   -2.66{col 47}{space 3}0.008{col 55}{space 4}-1.212193{col 68}{space 3}-.1829282
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.164425{col 27}{space 2} .3019143{col 38}{space 1}   -3.86{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4}-1.756166{col 68}{space 3}-.5726837
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.4136666{col 27}{space 2} .9112816{col 38}{space 1}   -0.45{col 47}{space 3}0.650{col 55}{space 4}-2.199746{col 68}{space 3} 1.372412
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.2564332{col 27}{space 2} .0954382{col 38}{space 1}   -2.69{col 47}{space 3}0.007{col 55}{space 4}-.4434887{col 68}{space 3}-.0693778
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1572927{col 27}{space 2} .1598305{col 38}{space 1}    0.98{col 47}{space 3}0.325{col 55}{space 4}-.1559693{col 68}{space 3} .4705546
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.4204143{col 27}{space 2} .2402644{col 38}{space 1}   -1.75{col 47}{space 3}0.080{col 55}{space 4}-.8913239{col 68}{space 3} .0504953
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1337504{col 27}{space 2} .0878715{col 38}{space 1}    1.52{col 47}{space 3}0.128{col 55}{space 4}-.0384747{col 68}{space 3} .3059754
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3408869{col 27}{space 2} .1031591{col 38}{space 1}    3.30{col 47}{space 3}0.001{col 55}{space 4} .1386987{col 68}{space 3} .5430751
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0095656{col 27}{space 2} .2058149{col 38}{space 1}   -0.05{col 47}{space 3}0.963{col 55}{space 4}-.4129554{col 68}{space 3} .3938242
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0014888{col 27}{space 2} .0006547{col 38}{space 1}    2.27{col 47}{space 3}0.023{col 55}{space 4} .0002057{col 68}{space 3}  .002772
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT53
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox  defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if unilateral==0 & local !=1 & coh==0  & exclude_25gedday !=1 , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_either_25_Gedday
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration_25threshold_gedday
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-288.06224
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-277.03937
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-276.62974
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-276.62948
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-276.62948
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-276.62948

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         106             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     6,528
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}          69
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      197122
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}9{txt})     =  {res}     47.34
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-276.62948             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:39} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7773493{col 27}{space 2} .3337894{col 38}{space 1}   -2.33{col 47}{space 3}0.020{col 55}{space 4}-1.431565{col 68}{space 3} -.123134
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.380856{col 27}{space 2} 1.009194{col 38}{space 1}   -1.37{col 47}{space 3}0.171{col 55}{space 4}-3.358839{col 68}{space 3} .5971271
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0587173{col 27}{space 2} .1234205{col 38}{space 1}   -0.48{col 47}{space 3}0.634{col 55}{space 4} -.300617{col 68}{space 3} .1831825
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0946538{col 27}{space 2} .1648122{col 38}{space 1}   -0.57{col 47}{space 3}0.566{col 55}{space 4}-.4176797{col 68}{space 3} .2283721
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.8311626{col 27}{space 2}  .305524{col 38}{space 1}   -2.72{col 47}{space 3}0.007{col 55}{space 4}-1.429979{col 68}{space 3}-.2323466
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0008791{col 27}{space 2} .1886808{col 38}{space 1}   -0.00{col 47}{space 3}0.996{col 55}{space 4}-.3706866{col 68}{space 3} .3689285
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .2299848{col 27}{space 2} .1346144{col 38}{space 1}    1.71{col 47}{space 3}0.088{col 55}{space 4}-.0338545{col 68}{space 3} .4938241
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0373044{col 27}{space 2} .1751096{col 38}{space 1}    0.21{col 47}{space 3}0.831{col 55}{space 4}-.3059041{col 68}{space 3}  .380513
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0006138{col 27}{space 2}  .001283{col 38}{space 1}    0.48{col 47}{space 3}0.632{col 55}{space 4}-.0019008{col 68}{space 3} .0031284
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT54
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab modelOAT53 modelOAT54 , cells(b(star fmt(3)) p(par fmt(2))) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01) scalars("N_fail Conflict Terminations" "aic AIC" "bic BIC" "ll Log lik." "chi2 Chi-squared")  label 
{res}
{txt}{hline 50}
{txt}                              (1)            (2)  
{txt}                     analysis t~s   analysis t~s  
{txt}                              b/p            b/p  
{txt}{hline 50}
{txt}Preliminary CF no ~n{res}       -0.698**               {txt}
                    {res}       (0.01)                 {txt}
{txt}Definitive CF       {res}       -1.164**       -0.777* {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.02)  {txt}
{txt}Electoral democrac~x{res}       -0.414         -1.381  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.65)         (0.17)  {txt}
{txt}Log Population      {res}       -0.256**       -0.059  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.01)         (0.63)  {txt}
{txt}Log GDP per capita  {res}        0.157         -0.095  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.33)         (0.57)  {txt}
{txt}UCDP Incompatabili~n{res}       -0.420+        -0.831**{txt}
                    {res}       (0.08)         (0.01)  {txt}
{txt}Count of other act~ {res}        0.134         -0.001  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.13)         (1.00)  {txt}
{txt}Count of dyads in ~t{res}        0.341**        0.230+ {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.09)  {txt}
{txt}Peacekeeping mission{res}       -0.010          0.037  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.96)         (0.83)  {txt}
{txt}Lag BD 1 month      {res}        0.001*         0.001  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.02)         (0.63)  {txt}
{txt}{hline 50}
{txt}Observations        {res}         8458           6528  {txt}
{txt}Conflict Terminati~s{res}          143             69  {txt}
{txt}AIC                 {res}       1295.3          571.3  {txt}
{txt}BIC                 {res}       1365.7          632.3  {txt}
{txt}Log lik.            {res}       -637.7         -276.6  {txt}
{txt}Chi-squared         {res}        154.4          47.34  {txt}
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. 
. 
. *Models OA20-OA21 (Only GED Events in specific month) 
. 
. stset duration_25threshold_GEDmon, failure (term_either_25threshold_GEDmon) id(cf_id)

                {txt}id:  {res}cf_id
     {txt}failure event:  {res}term_either_25threshold_GEDmon != 0 & term_either_25threshold_GEDmon < .
{txt}obs. time interval:  {res}(duration_25threshold_GEDmon[_n-1], duration_25threshold_GEDmon]
{txt} exit on or before:  {res}failure

{txt}{hline 78}
{res}     62,914{txt}  total observations
{res}     50,016{txt}  observations begin on or after (first) failure
{hline 78}
{res}     12,898{txt}  observations remaining, representing
{res}        280{txt}  subjects
{res}        280{txt}  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
{res}    388,331{txt}  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t = {res}        0
                                     {txt}earliest observed entry t = {res}        0
                                          {txt}last observed exit t = {res}   10,849
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox prelim_cf defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if unilateral==0 &  local==0 & exclude2 !=1  , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_either_25threshold_GEDmon
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration_25threshold_GEDmon
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-681.40199
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-650.68985
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-650.09931
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-650.09769
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-650.09769
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-650.09769

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     7,643
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         147
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      229774
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}    287.64
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-650.09769             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.6759574{col 27}{space 2} .2413426{col 38}{space 1}   -2.80{col 47}{space 3}0.005{col 55}{space 4} -1.14898{col 68}{space 3}-.2029346
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.176312{col 27}{space 2}  .301263{col 38}{space 1}   -3.90{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4}-1.766776{col 68}{space 3}-.5858472
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0433681{col 27}{space 2}  .902181{col 38}{space 1}    0.05{col 47}{space 3}0.962{col 55}{space 4}-1.724874{col 68}{space 3}  1.81161
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3054045{col 27}{space 2} .1037925{col 38}{space 1}   -2.94{col 47}{space 3}0.003{col 55}{space 4}-.5088341{col 68}{space 3}-.1019748
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1144496{col 27}{space 2} .1696826{col 38}{space 1}    0.67{col 47}{space 3}0.500{col 55}{space 4}-.2181222{col 68}{space 3} .4470213
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.4294462{col 27}{space 2} .2462503{col 38}{space 1}   -1.74{col 47}{space 3}0.081{col 55}{space 4} -.912088{col 68}{space 3} .0531955
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1392279{col 27}{space 2} .0884753{col 38}{space 1}    1.57{col 47}{space 3}0.116{col 55}{space 4}-.0341804{col 68}{space 3} .3126362
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3838025{col 27}{space 2} .0979246{col 38}{space 1}    3.92{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .1918739{col 68}{space 3} .5757312
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0770276{col 27}{space 2} .2049346{col 38}{space 1}    0.38{col 47}{space 3}0.707{col 55}{space 4}-.3246368{col 68}{space 3}  .478692
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0014724{col 27}{space 2} .0006359{col 38}{space 1}    2.32{col 47}{space 3}0.021{col 55}{space 4}  .000226{col 68}{space 3} .0027188
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT53
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox  defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if unilateral==0 & local !=1 & coh==0  & exclude2 !=1 , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_either_25threshold_GEDmon
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration_25threshold_GEDmon
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-302.04345
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-289.90387
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-289.36361
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -289.3633
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -289.3633

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         106             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     5,873
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}          73
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      177188
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}9{txt})     =  {res}     48.23
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res} -289.3633             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:39} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.8435466{col 27}{space 2} .3127409{col 38}{space 1}   -2.70{col 47}{space 3}0.007{col 55}{space 4}-1.456508{col 68}{space 3}-.2305857
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7078061{col 27}{space 2} 1.161319{col 38}{space 1}   -0.61{col 47}{space 3}0.542{col 55}{space 4} -2.98395{col 68}{space 3} 1.568338
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0964937{col 27}{space 2} .1436285{col 38}{space 1}   -0.67{col 47}{space 3}0.502{col 55}{space 4}-.3780005{col 68}{space 3}  .185013
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.2081905{col 27}{space 2} .1654629{col 38}{space 1}   -1.26{col 47}{space 3}0.208{col 55}{space 4}-.5324917{col 68}{space 3} .1161108
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.734728{col 27}{space 2} .3807598{col 38}{space 1}   -1.93{col 47}{space 3}0.054{col 55}{space 4}-1.481003{col 68}{space 3} .0115475
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0843325{col 27}{space 2}  .187684{col 38}{space 1}    0.45{col 47}{space 3}0.653{col 55}{space 4}-.2835213{col 68}{space 3} .4521864
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .2514259{col 27}{space 2}  .127135{col 38}{space 1}    1.98{col 47}{space 3}0.048{col 55}{space 4}  .002246{col 68}{space 3} .5006059
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1078951{col 27}{space 2} .2108867{col 38}{space 1}    0.51{col 47}{space 3}0.609{col 55}{space 4}-.3054353{col 68}{space 3} .5212255
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0004002{col 27}{space 2} .0012821{col 38}{space 1}    0.31{col 47}{space 3}0.755{col 55}{space 4}-.0021127{col 68}{space 3}  .002913
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT54
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab modelOAT53 modelOAT54 , cells(b(star fmt(3)) p(par fmt(2))) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01) scalars("N_fail Conflict Terminations" "aic AIC" "bic BIC" "ll Log lik." "chi2 Chi-squared")  label 
{res}
{txt}{hline 50}
{txt}                              (1)            (2)  
{txt}                     analysis t~s   analysis t~s  
{txt}                              b/p            b/p  
{txt}{hline 50}
{txt}Preliminary CF no ~n{res}       -0.676**               {txt}
                    {res}       (0.01)                 {txt}
{txt}Definitive CF       {res}       -1.176**       -0.844**{txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.01)  {txt}
{txt}Electoral democrac~x{res}        0.043         -0.708  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.96)         (0.54)  {txt}
{txt}Log Population      {res}       -0.305**       -0.096  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.50)  {txt}
{txt}Log GDP per capita  {res}        0.114         -0.208  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.50)         (0.21)  {txt}
{txt}UCDP Incompatabili~n{res}       -0.429+        -0.735+ {txt}
                    {res}       (0.08)         (0.05)  {txt}
{txt}Count of other act~ {res}        0.139          0.084  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.12)         (0.65)  {txt}
{txt}Count of dyads in ~t{res}        0.384**        0.251* {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.05)  {txt}
{txt}Peacekeeping mission{res}        0.077          0.108  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.71)         (0.61)  {txt}
{txt}Lag BD 1 month      {res}        0.001*         0.000  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.02)         (0.75)  {txt}
{txt}{hline 50}
{txt}Observations        {res}         7643           5873  {txt}
{txt}Conflict Terminati~s{res}          147             73  {txt}
{txt}AIC                 {res}       1320.2          596.7  {txt}
{txt}BIC                 {res}       1389.6          656.8  {txt}
{txt}Log lik.            {res}       -650.1         -289.4  {txt}
{txt}Chi-squared         {res}        287.6          48.23  {txt}
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. 
. 
. *******Online Appendix Table 6: Dependent Variable Specification
. 
. *Models OA22-OA23 (Only Violence for failure) 
. 
. stset duration1, failure (term_onlyvio) id(cf_id)

                {txt}id:  {res}cf_id
     {txt}failure event:  {res}term_onlyvio != 0 & term_onlyvio < .
{txt}obs. time interval:  {res}(duration1[_n-1], duration1]
{txt} exit on or before:  {res}failure

{txt}{hline 78}
{res}     62,914{txt}  total observations
{res}     21,106{txt}  observations begin on or after (first) failure
{hline 78}
{res}     41,808{txt}  observations remaining, representing
{res}        280{txt}  subjects
{res}        280{txt}  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
{res}  1,268,323{txt}  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t = {res}        0
                                     {txt}earliest observed entry t = {res}        0
                                          {txt}last observed exit t = {res}   10,876
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox prelim_cf defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if unilateral==0 &  local==0 & exclude2 !=1  , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_onlyvio
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-244.96166
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-230.12203
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-224.37278
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-224.33066
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-224.33057
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-224.33057

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     7,758
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}          54
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      233277
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}     99.75
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-224.33057             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.370813{col 27}{space 2}   .40118{col 38}{space 1}   -3.42{col 47}{space 3}0.001{col 55}{space 4}-2.157111{col 68}{space 3}-.5845143
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.8186515{col 27}{space 2} .3622974{col 38}{space 1}   -2.26{col 47}{space 3}0.024{col 55}{space 4}-1.528741{col 68}{space 3}-.1085617
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .8905343{col 27}{space 2} 1.294742{col 38}{space 1}    0.69{col 47}{space 3}0.492{col 55}{space 4}-1.647113{col 68}{space 3} 3.428181
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.1409159{col 27}{space 2} .1574147{col 38}{space 1}   -0.90{col 47}{space 3}0.371{col 55}{space 4} -.449443{col 68}{space 3} .1676112
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .4867392{col 27}{space 2}   .23459{col 38}{space 1}    2.07{col 47}{space 3}0.038{col 55}{space 4} .0269514{col 68}{space 3} .9465271
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3683285{col 27}{space 2} .4076973{col 38}{space 1}    0.90{col 47}{space 3}0.366{col 55}{space 4}-.4307436{col 68}{space 3} 1.167401
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0536849{col 27}{space 2} .2204414{col 38}{space 1}    0.24{col 47}{space 3}0.808{col 55}{space 4}-.3783723{col 68}{space 3} .4857421
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .6341251{col 27}{space 2} .1938189{col 38}{space 1}    3.27{col 47}{space 3}0.001{col 55}{space 4}  .254247{col 68}{space 3} 1.014003
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.1716349{col 27}{space 2} .3514094{col 38}{space 1}   -0.49{col 47}{space 3}0.625{col 55}{space 4}-.8603846{col 68}{space 3} .5171148
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0043193{col 27}{space 2} .0008507{col 38}{space 1}    5.08{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .0026519{col 68}{space 3} .0059867
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT53
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox  defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if unilateral==0 & local !=1 & coh==0  & exclude2 !=1 , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_onlyvio
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-94.214971
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-90.180841
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-89.984108
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-89.983127
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-89.983126
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-89.983126

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         106             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     6,005
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}          23
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      181208
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}9{txt})     =  {res}     14.64
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-89.983126             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.1014

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:39} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .2439821{col 27}{space 2} .4567109{col 38}{space 1}    0.53{col 47}{space 3}0.593{col 55}{space 4}-.6511548{col 68}{space 3} 1.139119
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.1009037{col 27}{space 2} 1.500975{col 38}{space 1}   -0.07{col 47}{space 3}0.946{col 55}{space 4} -3.04276{col 68}{space 3} 2.840953
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0345753{col 27}{space 2} .2070931{col 38}{space 1}    0.17{col 47}{space 3}0.867{col 55}{space 4}-.3713197{col 68}{space 3} .4404703
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1874063{col 27}{space 2} .3195312{col 38}{space 1}    0.59{col 47}{space 3}0.558{col 55}{space 4}-.4388633{col 68}{space 3}  .813676
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0391636{col 27}{space 2} .5218952{col 38}{space 1}    0.08{col 47}{space 3}0.940{col 55}{space 4}-.9837322{col 68}{space 3} 1.062059
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0375896{col 27}{space 2} .4368632{col 38}{space 1}   -0.09{col 47}{space 3}0.931{col 55}{space 4}-.8938258{col 68}{space 3} .8186466
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .4634466{col 27}{space 2} .2531039{col 38}{space 1}    1.83{col 47}{space 3}0.067{col 55}{space 4}-.0326279{col 68}{space 3} .9595211
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.6176157{col 27}{space 2} .4570793{col 38}{space 1}   -1.35{col 47}{space 3}0.177{col 55}{space 4}-1.513475{col 68}{space 3} .2782434
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0020325{col 27}{space 2} .0014826{col 38}{space 1}    1.37{col 47}{space 3}0.170{col 55}{space 4}-.0008732{col 68}{space 3} .0049383
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT54
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab modelOAT53 modelOAT54 , cells(b(star fmt(3)) p(par fmt(2))) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01) scalars("N_fail Conflict Terminations" "aic AIC" "bic BIC" "ll Log lik." "chi2 Chi-squared")  label 
{res}
{txt}{hline 50}
{txt}                              (1)            (2)  
{txt}                     analysis t~s   analysis t~s  
{txt}                              b/p            b/p  
{txt}{hline 50}
{txt}Preliminary CF no ~n{res}       -1.371**               {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)                 {txt}
{txt}Definitive CF       {res}       -0.819*         0.244  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.02)         (0.59)  {txt}
{txt}Electoral democrac~x{res}        0.891         -0.101  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.49)         (0.95)  {txt}
{txt}Log Population      {res}       -0.141          0.035  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.37)         (0.87)  {txt}
{txt}Log GDP per capita  {res}        0.487*         0.187  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.04)         (0.56)  {txt}
{txt}UCDP Incompatabili~n{res}        0.368          0.039  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.37)         (0.94)  {txt}
{txt}Count of other act~ {res}        0.054         -0.038  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.81)         (0.93)  {txt}
{txt}Count of dyads in ~t{res}        0.634**        0.463+ {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.07)  {txt}
{txt}Peacekeeping mission{res}       -0.172         -0.618  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.63)         (0.18)  {txt}
{txt}Lag BD 1 month      {res}        0.004**        0.002  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.17)  {txt}
{txt}{hline 50}
{txt}Observations        {res}         7758           6005  {txt}
{txt}Conflict Terminati~s{res}           54             23  {txt}
{txt}AIC                 {res}        468.7          198.0  {txt}
{txt}BIC                 {res}        538.2          258.3  {txt}
{txt}Log lik.            {res}       -224.3         -89.98  {txt}
{txt}Chi-squared         {res}        99.75          14.64  {txt}
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. *Models OA24-OA25 (All forms of GED violence) 
. 
.   
. stset duration_25threshold_allGED, failure (term_either_25_allged) id(cf_id)

                {txt}id:  {res}cf_id
     {txt}failure event:  {res}term_either_25_allged != 0 & term_either_25_allged < .
{txt}obs. time interval:  {res}(duration_25threshold_allGED[_n-1], duration_25threshold_allGED]
{txt} exit on or before:  {res}failure

{txt}{hline 78}
{res}     62,914{txt}  total observations
{res}     50,778{txt}  observations begin on or after (first) failure
{hline 78}
{res}     12,136{txt}  observations remaining, representing
{res}        280{txt}  subjects
{res}        280{txt}  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
{res}    365,139{txt}  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t = {res}        0
                                     {txt}earliest observed entry t = {res}        0
                                          {txt}last observed exit t = {res}   10,849
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox prelim_cf defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if unilateral==0 &  local==0 & exclude_25allged !=1  , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_either_25_allged
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration_25threshold_allGED
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-694.09471
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-664.94127
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-662.53204
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-662.37434
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-662.37249
{txt}Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-662.37249
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-662.37249

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     7,189
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         150
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      215954
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}    169.15
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-662.37249             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.745909{col 27}{space 2} .2167371{col 38}{space 1}   -3.44{col 47}{space 3}0.001{col 55}{space 4}-1.170706{col 68}{space 3}-.3211122
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.114624{col 27}{space 2} .3022775{col 38}{space 1}   -3.69{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4}-1.707078{col 68}{space 3}-.5221715
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.2816347{col 27}{space 2} .8812533{col 38}{space 1}   -0.32{col 47}{space 3}0.749{col 55}{space 4}-2.008859{col 68}{space 3}  1.44559
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.2577674{col 27}{space 2} .0974183{col 38}{space 1}   -2.65{col 47}{space 3}0.008{col 55}{space 4}-.4487038{col 68}{space 3} -.066831
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0957179{col 27}{space 2} .1681257{col 38}{space 1}    0.57{col 47}{space 3}0.569{col 55}{space 4}-.2338024{col 68}{space 3} .4252381
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.4471621{col 27}{space 2} .2460991{col 38}{space 1}   -1.82{col 47}{space 3}0.069{col 55}{space 4}-.9295075{col 68}{space 3} .0351833
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0756336{col 27}{space 2} .0920819{col 38}{space 1}    0.82{col 47}{space 3}0.411{col 55}{space 4}-.1048437{col 68}{space 3} .2561108
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .414829{col 27}{space 2} .0996511{col 38}{space 1}    4.16{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .2195164{col 68}{space 3} .6101417
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0567479{col 27}{space 2} .2028286{col 38}{space 1}    0.28{col 47}{space 3}0.780{col 55}{space 4}-.3407889{col 68}{space 3} .4542846
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0021429{col 27}{space 2} .0006088{col 38}{space 1}    3.52{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .0009497{col 68}{space 3} .0033361
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT53
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox  defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if unilateral==0 & local !=1 & coh==0  & exclude_25allged !=1 , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_either_25_allged
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration_25threshold_allGED
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-305.65609
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-294.47798
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-292.79312
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-292.71399
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-292.71328
{txt}Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-292.71328
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-292.71328

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         106             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     5,698
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}          74
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      171863
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}9{txt})     =  {res}     62.88
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-292.71328             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:39} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7359232{col 27}{space 2} .3305173{col 38}{space 1}   -2.23{col 47}{space 3}0.026{col 55}{space 4}-1.383725{col 68}{space 3}-.0881213
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-2.083712{col 27}{space 2} 1.080068{col 38}{space 1}   -1.93{col 47}{space 3}0.054{col 55}{space 4}-4.200607{col 68}{space 3} .0331835
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0039195{col 27}{space 2} .1287082{col 38}{space 1}   -0.03{col 47}{space 3}0.976{col 55}{space 4} -.256183{col 68}{space 3} .2483439
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.1852669{col 27}{space 2} .1505175{col 38}{space 1}   -1.23{col 47}{space 3}0.218{col 55}{space 4}-.4802758{col 68}{space 3}  .109742
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7821817{col 27}{space 2} .3808446{col 38}{space 1}   -2.05{col 47}{space 3}0.040{col 55}{space 4}-1.528623{col 68}{space 3}-.0357399
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0180697{col 27}{space 2} .2087153{col 38}{space 1}   -0.09{col 47}{space 3}0.931{col 55}{space 4}-.4271442{col 68}{space 3} .3910048
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .2210195{col 27}{space 2} .1493655{col 38}{space 1}    1.48{col 47}{space 3}0.139{col 55}{space 4}-.0717315{col 68}{space 3} .5137706
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.1460307{col 27}{space 2} .2557113{col 38}{space 1}   -0.57{col 47}{space 3}0.568{col 55}{space 4}-.6472156{col 68}{space 3} .3551543
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0020109{col 27}{space 2} .0010012{col 38}{space 1}    2.01{col 47}{space 3}0.045{col 55}{space 4} .0000485{col 68}{space 3} .0039733
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT54
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab modelOAT53 modelOAT54 , cells(b(star fmt(3)) p(par fmt(2))) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01) scalars("N_fail Conflict Terminations" "aic AIC" "bic BIC" "ll Log lik." "chi2 Chi-squared")  label 
{res}
{txt}{hline 50}
{txt}                              (1)            (2)  
{txt}                     analysis t~s   analysis t~s  
{txt}                              b/p            b/p  
{txt}{hline 50}
{txt}Preliminary CF no ~n{res}       -0.746**               {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)                 {txt}
{txt}Definitive CF       {res}       -1.115**       -0.736* {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.03)  {txt}
{txt}Electoral democrac~x{res}       -0.282         -2.084+ {txt}
                    {res}       (0.75)         (0.05)  {txt}
{txt}Log Population      {res}       -0.258**       -0.004  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.01)         (0.98)  {txt}
{txt}Log GDP per capita  {res}        0.096         -0.185  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.57)         (0.22)  {txt}
{txt}UCDP Incompatabili~n{res}       -0.447+        -0.782* {txt}
                    {res}       (0.07)         (0.04)  {txt}
{txt}Count of other act~ {res}        0.076         -0.018  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.41)         (0.93)  {txt}
{txt}Count of dyads in ~t{res}        0.415**        0.221  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.14)  {txt}
{txt}Peacekeeping mission{res}        0.057         -0.146  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.78)         (0.57)  {txt}
{txt}Lag BD 1 month      {res}        0.002**        0.002* {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.04)  {txt}
{txt}{hline 50}
{txt}Observations        {res}         7189           5698  {txt}
{txt}Conflict Terminati~s{res}          150             74  {txt}
{txt}AIC                 {res}       1344.7          603.4  {txt}
{txt}BIC                 {res}       1413.5          663.3  {txt}
{txt}Log lik.            {res}       -662.4         -292.7  {txt}
{txt}Chi-squared         {res}        169.1          62.88  {txt}
{txt}{hline 50}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. *Online Appendix Table 7: Cluster Dyad and conflict ID rather than country 
. 
. *Models OA26-OA29
. 
. stset duration1, failure (term_eithera) id(cf_id)

                {txt}id:  {res}cf_id
     {txt}failure event:  {res}term_eithera != 0 & term_eithera < .
{txt}obs. time interval:  {res}(duration1[_n-1], duration1]
{txt} exit on or before:  {res}failure

{txt}{hline 78}
{res}     62,914{txt}  total observations
{res}     49,851{txt}  observations begin on or after (first) failure
{hline 78}
{res}     13,063{txt}  observations remaining, representing
{res}        280{txt}  subjects
{res}        280{txt}  failures in single-failure-per-subject data
{res}    393,353{txt}  total analysis time at risk and under observation
                                                at risk from t = {res}        0
                                     {txt}earliest observed entry t = {res}        0
                                          {txt}last observed exit t = {res}   10,849
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. stcox prelim_cf defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if unilateral==0 &  local==0 & exclude2 !=1 , nohr cl(acd1 )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-682.84702
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-651.56068
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-651.01892
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-651.01798
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-651.01798

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     7,802
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         147
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      234611
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}    143.62
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-651.01798             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:56} clusters in acd1)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.743246{col 27}{space 2} .2759311{col 38}{space 1}   -2.69{col 47}{space 3}0.007{col 55}{space 4}-1.284061{col 68}{space 3}-.2024309
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.223653{col 27}{space 2}  .309859{col 38}{space 1}   -3.95{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4}-1.830966{col 68}{space 3} -.616341
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.190748{col 27}{space 2}  .805455{col 38}{space 1}   -0.24{col 47}{space 3}0.813{col 55}{space 4}-1.769411{col 68}{space 3} 1.387915
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3053035{col 27}{space 2} .1002301{col 38}{space 1}   -3.05{col 47}{space 3}0.002{col 55}{space 4}-.5017508{col 68}{space 3}-.1088561
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .110456{col 27}{space 2} .1529184{col 38}{space 1}    0.72{col 47}{space 3}0.470{col 55}{space 4}-.1892585{col 68}{space 3} .4101705
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3954936{col 27}{space 2} .2508925{col 38}{space 1}   -1.58{col 47}{space 3}0.115{col 55}{space 4} -.887234{col 68}{space 3} .0962467
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1550582{col 27}{space 2} .0935481{col 38}{space 1}    1.66{col 47}{space 3}0.097{col 55}{space 4}-.0282926{col 68}{space 3} .3384091
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3661532{col 27}{space 2} .0939546{col 38}{space 1}    3.90{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .1820055{col 68}{space 3} .5503009
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0393169{col 27}{space 2}  .202729{col 38}{space 1}    0.19{col 47}{space 3}0.846{col 55}{space 4}-.3580246{col 68}{space 3} .4366583
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0013861{col 27}{space 2} .0005842{col 38}{space 1}    2.37{col 47}{space 3}0.018{col 55}{space 4} .0002411{col 68}{space 3} .0025312
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT71
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox  defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if unilateral==0 & local !=1 & coh==0   & exclude2 !=1, nohr cl( acd1 )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-298.55264
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-286.41279
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-285.81293
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-285.81254
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-285.81254
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-285.81254

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         106             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     6,025
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}          72
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      181814
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}9{txt})     =  {res}     36.44
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-285.81254             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:43} clusters in acd1)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.8868081{col 27}{space 2} .3331108{col 38}{space 1}   -2.66{col 47}{space 3}0.008{col 55}{space 4}-1.539693{col 68}{space 3} -.233923
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.396032{col 27}{space 2} 1.500561{col 38}{space 1}   -0.93{col 47}{space 3}0.352{col 55}{space 4}-4.337078{col 68}{space 3} 1.545014
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0425212{col 27}{space 2} .1510012{col 38}{space 1}   -0.28{col 47}{space 3}0.778{col 55}{space 4}-.3384781{col 68}{space 3} .2534358
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.236333{col 27}{space 2} .1671193{col 38}{space 1}   -1.41{col 47}{space 3}0.157{col 55}{space 4}-.5638807{col 68}{space 3} .0912148
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7424551{col 27}{space 2} .4085561{col 38}{space 1}   -1.82{col 47}{space 3}0.069{col 55}{space 4} -1.54321{col 68}{space 3} .0583002
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0783618{col 27}{space 2} .1860774{col 38}{space 1}    0.42{col 47}{space 3}0.674{col 55}{space 4}-.2863431{col 68}{space 3} .4430668
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .2054678{col 27}{space 2} .1290791{col 38}{space 1}    1.59{col 47}{space 3}0.111{col 55}{space 4}-.0475226{col 68}{space 3} .4584581
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0132359{col 27}{space 2} .2452542{col 38}{space 1}   -0.05{col 47}{space 3}0.957{col 55}{space 4}-.4939253{col 68}{space 3} .4674535
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0007116{col 27}{space 2} .0011514{col 38}{space 1}    0.62{col 47}{space 3}0.537{col 55}{space 4} -.001545{col 68}{space 3} .0029682
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT72
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox prelim_cf defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if  unilateral==0 &  local==0 & exclude2 !=1  , nohr cl( dyad1 )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-682.84702
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-651.56068
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-651.01892
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-651.01798
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-651.01798

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     7,802
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         147
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      234611
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}    129.78
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-651.01798             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:70} clusters in dyad1)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.743246{col 27}{space 2} .2521746{col 38}{space 1}   -2.95{col 47}{space 3}0.003{col 55}{space 4}-1.237499{col 68}{space 3}-.2489929
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.223653{col 27}{space 2}  .276831{col 38}{space 1}   -4.42{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4}-1.766232{col 68}{space 3}-.6810747
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.190748{col 27}{space 2} .8244203{col 38}{space 1}   -0.23{col 47}{space 3}0.817{col 55}{space 4}-1.806582{col 68}{space 3} 1.425086
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3053035{col 27}{space 2} .1049645{col 38}{space 1}   -2.91{col 47}{space 3}0.004{col 55}{space 4}-.5110301{col 68}{space 3}-.0995768
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .110456{col 27}{space 2} .1526952{col 38}{space 1}    0.72{col 47}{space 3}0.469{col 55}{space 4}-.1888212{col 68}{space 3} .4097331
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3954936{col 27}{space 2} .2630917{col 38}{space 1}   -1.50{col 47}{space 3}0.133{col 55}{space 4}-.9111439{col 68}{space 3} .1201566
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1550582{col 27}{space 2} .0940913{col 38}{space 1}    1.65{col 47}{space 3}0.099{col 55}{space 4}-.0293573{col 68}{space 3} .3394737
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3661532{col 27}{space 2} .1018838{col 38}{space 1}    3.59{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .1664645{col 68}{space 3} .5658418
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0393169{col 27}{space 2} .2035775{col 38}{space 1}    0.19{col 47}{space 3}0.847{col 55}{space 4}-.3596877{col 68}{space 3} .4383214
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0013861{col 27}{space 2} .0006164{col 38}{space 1}    2.25{col 47}{space 3}0.025{col 55}{space 4}  .000178{col 68}{space 3} .0025942
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT73
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox  defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if unilateral==0 & local !=1 & coh==0  & exclude2 !=1 , nohr cl( dyad1 )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-298.55264
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-286.41279
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-285.81293
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-285.81254
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-285.81254
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-285.81254

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         106             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     6,025
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}          72
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      181814
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}9{txt})     =  {res}     24.95
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-285.81254             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0030

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:55} clusters in dyad1)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.8868081{col 27}{space 2} .3112641{col 38}{space 1}   -2.85{col 47}{space 3}0.004{col 55}{space 4}-1.496875{col 68}{space 3}-.2767417
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.396032{col 27}{space 2}  1.50066{col 38}{space 1}   -0.93{col 47}{space 3}0.352{col 55}{space 4}-4.337271{col 68}{space 3} 1.545207
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0425212{col 27}{space 2} .1480953{col 38}{space 1}   -0.29{col 47}{space 3}0.774{col 55}{space 4}-.3327825{col 68}{space 3} .2477402
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.236333{col 27}{space 2}   .18464{col 38}{space 1}   -1.28{col 47}{space 3}0.201{col 55}{space 4}-.5982207{col 68}{space 3} .1255548
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7424551{col 27}{space 2} .4184396{col 38}{space 1}   -1.77{col 47}{space 3}0.076{col 55}{space 4}-1.562582{col 68}{space 3} .0776715
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0783618{col 27}{space 2} .1964872{col 38}{space 1}    0.40{col 47}{space 3}0.690{col 55}{space 4} -.306746{col 68}{space 3} .4634697
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .2054678{col 27}{space 2}  .135454{col 38}{space 1}    1.52{col 47}{space 3}0.129{col 55}{space 4}-.0600172{col 68}{space 3} .4709527
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0132359{col 27}{space 2} .2258523{col 38}{space 1}   -0.06{col 47}{space 3}0.953{col 55}{space 4}-.4558983{col 68}{space 3} .4294264
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0007116{col 27}{space 2} .0011767{col 38}{space 1}    0.60{col 47}{space 3}0.545{col 55}{space 4}-.0015946{col 68}{space 3} .0030179
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT74
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab modelOAT71 modelOAT72 modelOAT73 modelOAT74 , cells(b(star fmt(3)) p(par fmt(2))) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01) scalars("N_fail Conflict Terminations" "aic AIC" "bic BIC" "ll Log lik." "chi2 Chi-squared")  label 
{res}
{txt}{hline 80}
{txt}                              (1)            (2)            (3)            (4)  
{txt}                     analysis t~s   analysis t~s   analysis t~s   analysis t~s  
{txt}                              b/p            b/p            b/p            b/p  
{txt}{hline 80}
{txt}Preliminary CF no ~n{res}       -0.743**                      -0.743**               {txt}
                    {res}       (0.01)                        (0.00)                 {txt}
{txt}Definitive CF       {res}       -1.224**       -0.887**       -1.224**       -0.887**{txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.01)         (0.00)         (0.00)  {txt}
{txt}Electoral democrac~x{res}       -0.191         -1.396         -0.191         -1.396  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.81)         (0.35)         (0.82)         (0.35)  {txt}
{txt}Log Population      {res}       -0.305**       -0.043         -0.305**       -0.043  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.78)         (0.00)         (0.77)  {txt}
{txt}Log GDP per capita  {res}        0.110         -0.236          0.110         -0.236  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.47)         (0.16)         (0.47)         (0.20)  {txt}
{txt}UCDP Incompatabili~n{res}       -0.395         -0.742+        -0.395         -0.742+ {txt}
                    {res}       (0.11)         (0.07)         (0.13)         (0.08)  {txt}
{txt}Count of other act~ {res}        0.155+         0.078          0.155+         0.078  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.10)         (0.67)         (0.10)         (0.69)  {txt}
{txt}Count of dyads in ~t{res}        0.366**        0.205          0.366**        0.205  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.11)         (0.00)         (0.13)  {txt}
{txt}Peacekeeping mission{res}        0.039         -0.013          0.039         -0.013  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.85)         (0.96)         (0.85)         (0.95)  {txt}
{txt}Lag BD 1 month      {res}        0.001*         0.001          0.001*         0.001  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.02)         (0.54)         (0.02)         (0.55)  {txt}
{txt}{hline 80}
{txt}Observations        {res}         7802           6025           7802           6025  {txt}
{txt}Conflict Terminati~s{res}          147             72            147             72  {txt}
{txt}AIC                 {res}       1322.0          589.6         1322.0          589.6  {txt}
{txt}BIC                 {res}       1391.7          650.0         1391.7          650.0  {txt}
{txt}Log lik.            {res}       -651.0         -285.8         -651.0         -285.8  {txt}
{txt}Chi-squared         {res}        143.6          36.44          129.8          24.95  {txt}
{txt}{hline 80}

{com}. 
. 
. * Online Appendix Table 8: Jacknife and Weibull
. 
. *Models OA30-OA33
. 
. jackknife: stcox prelim_cf defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if unilateral==0 &  local==0 & exclude2 !=1  , nohr cl( ccode )
{txt}(running stcox on estimation sample)
{res}
{txt}Jackknife replications ({res}42{txt})
{hline 4}{c +}{hline 3} 1 {hline 3}{c +}{hline 3} 2 {hline 3}{c +}{hline 3} 3 {hline 3}{c +}{hline 3} 4 {hline 3}{c +}{hline 3} 5 
..........................................
{res}
{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     7,802
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         147
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      234611
                                                {txt}F({res}  10{txt},{res}     41{txt})  =  {res}     13.32
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-651.01798             {txt}Prob > F         =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Replications based on {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}   Jackknife
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      t{col 47}   P>|t|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.743246{col 27}{space 2} .3138959{col 38}{space 1}   -2.37{col 47}{space 3}0.023{col 55}{space 4}-1.377172{col 68}{space 3}-.1093203
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.223653{col 27}{space 2} .3547175{col 38}{space 1}   -3.45{col 47}{space 3}0.001{col 55}{space 4} -1.94002{col 68}{space 3} -.507287
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.190748{col 27}{space 2} 1.486274{col 38}{space 1}   -0.13{col 47}{space 3}0.899{col 55}{space 4}-3.192339{col 68}{space 3} 2.810843
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3053035{col 27}{space 2} .1443552{col 38}{space 1}   -2.11{col 47}{space 3}0.041{col 55}{space 4}-.5968347{col 68}{space 3}-.0137722
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .110456{col 27}{space 2} .2265402{col 38}{space 1}    0.49{col 47}{space 3}0.628{col 55}{space 4}-.3470513{col 68}{space 3} .5679632
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3954936{col 27}{space 2} .3216663{col 38}{space 1}   -1.23{col 47}{space 3}0.226{col 55}{space 4}-1.045112{col 68}{space 3} .2541246
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1550582{col 27}{space 2}  .105801{col 38}{space 1}    1.47{col 47}{space 3}0.150{col 55}{space 4}-.0586112{col 68}{space 3} .3687276
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3661532{col 27}{space 2} .1292283{col 38}{space 1}    2.83{col 47}{space 3}0.007{col 55}{space 4} .1051713{col 68}{space 3}  .627135
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0393169{col 27}{space 2} .2758681{col 38}{space 1}    0.14{col 47}{space 3}0.887{col 55}{space 4}-.5178101{col 68}{space 3} .5964438
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0013861{col 27}{space 2} .0007212{col 38}{space 1}    1.92{col 47}{space 3}0.062{col 55}{space 4}-.0000704{col 68}{space 3} .0028427
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT71
{txt}
{com}. 
. jackknife: stcox  defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if unilateral==0 & local !=1 & coh==0  & exclude2 !=1  , nohr cl( ccode )
{txt}(running stcox on estimation sample)
{res}
{txt}Jackknife replications ({res}39{txt})
{hline 4}{c +}{hline 3} 1 {hline 3}{c +}{hline 3} 2 {hline 3}{c +}{hline 3} 3 {hline 3}{c +}{hline 3} 4 {hline 3}{c +}{hline 3} 5 
.......................................
{res}
{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         106             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     6,025
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}          72
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      181814
                                                {txt}F({res}   9{txt},{res}     38{txt})  =  {res}      2.21
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-285.81254             {txt}Prob > F         =  {res}    0.0429

{txt}{ralign 79:(Replications based on {res:39} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}   Jackknife
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      t{col 47}   P>|t|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.8868081{col 27}{space 2}  .351482{col 38}{space 1}   -2.52{col 47}{space 3}0.016{col 55}{space 4}-1.598346{col 68}{space 3}-.1752699
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.396032{col 27}{space 2}  1.82987{col 38}{space 1}   -0.76{col 47}{space 3}0.450{col 55}{space 4}-5.100411{col 68}{space 3} 2.308347
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0425212{col 27}{space 2} .1789508{col 38}{space 1}   -0.24{col 47}{space 3}0.813{col 55}{space 4}-.4047881{col 68}{space 3} .3197458
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.236333{col 27}{space 2} .2283035{col 38}{space 1}   -1.04{col 47}{space 3}0.307{col 55}{space 4}-.6985092{col 68}{space 3} .2258433
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7424551{col 27}{space 2} .5639421{col 38}{space 1}   -1.32{col 47}{space 3}0.196{col 55}{space 4}-1.884096{col 68}{space 3} .3991859
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0783618{col 27}{space 2} .2988534{col 38}{space 1}    0.26{col 47}{space 3}0.795{col 55}{space 4}-.5266352{col 68}{space 3} .6833588
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .2054678{col 27}{space 2} .1620756{col 38}{space 1}    1.27{col 47}{space 3}0.213{col 55}{space 4}-.1226372{col 68}{space 3} .5335727
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0132359{col 27}{space 2} .3052495{col 38}{space 1}   -0.04{col 47}{space 3}0.966{col 55}{space 4}-.6311812{col 68}{space 3} .6047093
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0007116{col 27}{space 2} .0017651{col 38}{space 1}    0.40{col 47}{space 3}0.689{col 55}{space 4}-.0028617{col 68}{space 3} .0042849
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT72
{txt}
{com}. 
. streg prelim_cf defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if unilateral==0 &  local==0 & exclude2 !=1  , nohr d(weibull)cl(ccode)

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Fitting constant-only model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-561.05827
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-427.26653
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-411.69707
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-411.53523
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-411.53522

{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-411.53522}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-384.98322}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-381.33744}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-381.32673}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-381.32673}  
{res}
{txt}Weibull PH regression

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     7,802
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         147
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      234611
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}     80.22
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-381.32673             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.8269059{col 27}{space 2} .2900094{col 38}{space 1}   -2.85{col 47}{space 3}0.004{col 55}{space 4}-1.395314{col 68}{space 3} -.258498
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.358219{col 27}{space 2} .3694172{col 38}{space 1}   -3.68{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4}-2.082263{col 68}{space 3}-.6341744
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3911855{col 27}{space 2}  .901218{col 38}{space 1}   -0.43{col 47}{space 3}0.664{col 55}{space 4} -2.15754{col 68}{space 3} 1.375169
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.191591{col 27}{space 2} .1052912{col 38}{space 1}   -1.82{col 47}{space 3}0.069{col 55}{space 4} -.397958{col 68}{space 3}  .014776
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0923446{col 27}{space 2} .1740535{col 38}{space 1}    0.53{col 47}{space 3}0.596{col 55}{space 4} -.248794{col 68}{space 3} .4334833
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3396258{col 27}{space 2}  .302544{col 38}{space 1}   -1.12{col 47}{space 3}0.262{col 55}{space 4}-.9326011{col 68}{space 3} .2533495
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1219519{col 27}{space 2} .1014775{col 38}{space 1}    1.20{col 47}{space 3}0.229{col 55}{space 4}-.0769404{col 68}{space 3} .3208443
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3766675{col 27}{space 2} .1196073{col 38}{space 1}    3.15{col 47}{space 3}0.002{col 55}{space 4} .1422414{col 68}{space 3} .6110935
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .2189759{col 27}{space 2} .2611331{col 38}{space 1}    0.84{col 47}{space 3}0.402{col 55}{space 4}-.2928356{col 68}{space 3} .7307874
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0004178{col 27}{space 2}  .000925{col 38}{space 1}    0.45{col 47}{space 3}0.652{col 55}{space 4}-.0013951{col 68}{space 3} .0022307
{txt}{space 8}_cons {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.6473093{col 27}{space 2} 1.676681{col 38}{space 1}   -0.39{col 47}{space 3}0.699{col 55}{space 4}-3.933544{col 68}{space 3} 2.638925
{txt}{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 8}/ln_p {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7437463{col 27}{space 2} .0544037{col 38}{space 1}  -13.67{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4}-.8503756{col 68}{space 3}-.6371169
{txt}{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
            p {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .4753299{col 27}{space 2} .0258597{col 55}{space 4} .4272544{col 68}{space 3} .5288148
{txt}          1/p {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} 2.103802{col 27}{space 2} .1144547{col 55}{space 4} 1.891021{col 68}{space 3} 2.340526
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT73
{txt}
{com}. 
. streg  defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if unilateral==0 & local !=1 & coh==0 & exclude2 !=1  , nohr d(weibull)cl(ccode)

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Fitting constant-only model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-294.60091
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-229.05125
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-218.61539
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-218.36799
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-218.36791
{txt}Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-218.36791

{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-218.36791}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-207.47144}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -205.9986}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -205.9967}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -205.9967}  
{res}
{txt}Weibull PH regression

No. of subjects      = {res}         106             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     6,025
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}          72
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      181814
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}9{txt})     =  {res}     36.94
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res} -205.9967             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:39} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.028463{col 27}{space 2} .3846473{col 38}{space 1}   -2.67{col 47}{space 3}0.008{col 55}{space 4}-1.782358{col 68}{space 3}-.2745683
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.438613{col 27}{space 2} 1.214102{col 38}{space 1}   -1.18{col 47}{space 3}0.236{col 55}{space 4}-3.818209{col 68}{space 3} .9409837
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0996918{col 27}{space 2} .1624773{col 38}{space 1}    0.61{col 47}{space 3}0.539{col 55}{space 4}-.2187579{col 68}{space 3} .4181415
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3408686{col 27}{space 2} .1559657{col 38}{space 1}   -2.19{col 47}{space 3}0.029{col 55}{space 4}-.6465557{col 68}{space 3}-.0351814
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7279139{col 27}{space 2} .4512141{col 38}{space 1}   -1.61{col 47}{space 3}0.107{col 55}{space 4}-1.612277{col 68}{space 3} .1564496
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0500993{col 27}{space 2} .2233915{col 38}{space 1}    0.22{col 47}{space 3}0.823{col 55}{space 4}-.3877401{col 68}{space 3} .4879386
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .187636{col 27}{space 2} .1738304{col 38}{space 1}    1.08{col 47}{space 3}0.280{col 55}{space 4}-.1530654{col 68}{space 3} .5283374
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1583537{col 27}{space 2} .2742938{col 38}{space 1}    0.58{col 47}{space 3}0.564{col 55}{space 4}-.3792522{col 68}{space 3} .6959596
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0003707{col 27}{space 2}  .001431{col 38}{space 1}    0.26{col 47}{space 3}0.796{col 55}{space 4} -.002434{col 68}{space 3} .0031755
{txt}{space 8}_cons {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.462284{col 27}{space 2}  2.05377{col 38}{space 1}   -0.71{col 47}{space 3}0.476{col 55}{space 4}-5.487598{col 68}{space 3} 2.563031
{txt}{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 8}/ln_p {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.8469862{col 27}{space 2} .0568849{col 38}{space 1}  -14.89{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4}-.9584786{col 68}{space 3}-.7354938
{txt}{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
            p {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .428705{col 27}{space 2} .0243868{col 55}{space 4} .3834759{col 68}{space 3} .4792687
{txt}          1/p {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} 2.332606{col 27}{space 2} .1326901{col 55}{space 4} 2.086512{col 68}{space 3} 2.607726
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT74
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab modelOAT71 modelOAT72 modelOAT73 modelOAT74 , cells(b(star fmt(3)) p(par fmt(2))) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01) scalars("N_fail Conflict Terminations" "aic AIC" "bic BIC" "ll Log lik." "chi2 Chi-squared")  label 
{res}
{txt}{hline 80}
{txt}                              (1)            (2)            (3)            (4)  
{txt}                     analysis t~s   analysis t~s   analysis t~s   analysis t~s  
{txt}                              b/p            b/p            b/p            b/p  
{txt}{hline 80}
{res}main                                                                            {txt}
{txt}Preliminary CF no ~n{res}       -0.743*                       -0.827**               {txt}
                    {res}       (0.02)                        (0.00)                 {txt}
{txt}Definitive CF       {res}       -1.224**       -0.887*        -1.358**       -1.028**{txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.02)         (0.00)         (0.01)  {txt}
{txt}Electoral democrac~x{res}       -0.191         -1.396         -0.391         -1.439  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.90)         (0.45)         (0.66)         (0.24)  {txt}
{txt}Log Population      {res}       -0.305*        -0.043         -0.192+         0.100  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.04)         (0.81)         (0.07)         (0.54)  {txt}
{txt}Log GDP per capita  {res}        0.110         -0.236          0.092         -0.341* {txt}
                    {res}       (0.63)         (0.31)         (0.60)         (0.03)  {txt}
{txt}UCDP Incompatabili~n{res}       -0.395         -0.742         -0.340         -0.728  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.23)         (0.20)         (0.26)         (0.11)  {txt}
{txt}Count of other act~ {res}        0.155          0.078          0.122          0.050  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.15)         (0.79)         (0.23)         (0.82)  {txt}
{txt}Count of dyads in ~t{res}        0.366**        0.205          0.377**        0.188  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.01)         (0.21)         (0.00)         (0.28)  {txt}
{txt}Peacekeeping mission{res}        0.039         -0.013          0.219          0.158  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.89)         (0.97)         (0.40)         (0.56)  {txt}
{txt}Lag BD 1 month      {res}        0.001+         0.001          0.000          0.000  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.06)         (0.69)         (0.65)         (0.80)  {txt}
{txt}Constant            {res}                                     -0.647         -1.462  {txt}
                    {res}                                     (0.70)         (0.48)  {txt}
{hline 80}
{res}/                                                                               {txt}
{txt}ln_p                {res}                                     -0.744**       -0.847**{txt}
                    {res}                                     (0.00)         (0.00)  {txt}
{txt}{hline 80}
{txt}Observations        {res}         7802           6025           7802           6025  {txt}
{txt}Conflict Terminati~s{res}          147             72            147             72  {txt}
{txt}AIC                 {res}       1322.0          589.6          786.7          434.0  {txt}
{txt}BIC                 {res}       1391.7          650.0          870.2          507.7  {txt}
{txt}Log lik.            {res}       -651.0         -285.8         -381.3         -206.0  {txt}
{txt}Chi-squared         {res}                                      80.22          36.94  {txt}
{txt}{hline 80}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. *Online Appendix Table 9: Alternative lag DVs
. 
. *Models OA34-OA39
. 
. stcox prelim_cf defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko  if unilateral==0 &  local==0 & exclude2 !=1  , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-858.32221
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-837.21418
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-837.07901
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}  -837.079
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}  -837.079

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         199             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}    10,397
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         199
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      313411
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}9{txt})     =  {res}     61.85
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}  -837.079             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:44} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.6222065{col 27}{space 2} .2335294{col 38}{space 1}   -2.66{col 47}{space 3}0.008{col 55}{space 4}-1.079916{col 68}{space 3}-.1644972
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7700179{col 27}{space 2} .1794614{col 38}{space 1}   -4.29{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4}-1.121756{col 68}{space 3}-.4182801
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.788279{col 27}{space 2} .6007728{col 38}{space 1}   -1.31{col 47}{space 3}0.189{col 55}{space 4}-1.965772{col 68}{space 3} .3892141
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.1523936{col 27}{space 2} .0798186{col 38}{space 1}   -1.91{col 47}{space 3}0.056{col 55}{space 4}-.3088353{col 68}{space 3}  .004048
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0430302{col 27}{space 2} .1054927{col 38}{space 1}    0.41{col 47}{space 3}0.683{col 55}{space 4}-.1637317{col 68}{space 3} .2497921
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3702311{col 27}{space 2} .1898368{col 38}{space 1}   -1.95{col 47}{space 3}0.051{col 55}{space 4}-.7423045{col 68}{space 3} .0018422
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .117938{col 27}{space 2} .0784478{col 38}{space 1}    1.50{col 47}{space 3}0.133{col 55}{space 4}-.0358169{col 68}{space 3} .2716929
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .2410404{col 27}{space 2} .0782892{col 38}{space 1}    3.08{col 47}{space 3}0.002{col 55}{space 4} .0875963{col 68}{space 3} .3944845
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0496264{col 27}{space 2} .1667668{col 38}{space 1}    0.30{col 47}{space 3}0.766{col 55}{space 4}-.2772306{col 68}{space 3} .3764834
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOA21
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox  defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko  if unilateral==0 & local !=1 & coh==0  & exclude2 !=1  , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-410.49933
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-404.34987
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-404.29241
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -404.2924
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -404.2924

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         110             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     7,723
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         110
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      233401
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}8{txt})     =  {res}     27.26
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res} -404.2924             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0006

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:41} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3853168{col 27}{space 2} .1663298{col 38}{space 1}   -2.32{col 47}{space 3}0.021{col 55}{space 4}-.7113172{col 68}{space 3}-.0593164
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.031937{col 27}{space 2} .7490041{col 38}{space 1}   -1.38{col 47}{space 3}0.168{col 55}{space 4}-2.499958{col 68}{space 3} .4360837
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0736335{col 27}{space 2} .0952894{col 38}{space 1}    0.77{col 47}{space 3}0.440{col 55}{space 4}-.1131302{col 68}{space 3} .2603973
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0651522{col 27}{space 2} .0972914{col 38}{space 1}   -0.67{col 47}{space 3}0.503{col 55}{space 4}-.2558399{col 68}{space 3} .1255355
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3215333{col 27}{space 2} .2583258{col 38}{space 1}   -1.24{col 47}{space 3}0.213{col 55}{space 4}-.8278425{col 68}{space 3} .1847759
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .069283{col 27}{space 2} .1190037{col 38}{space 1}    0.58{col 47}{space 3}0.560{col 55}{space 4}-.1639599{col 68}{space 3}  .302526
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1387518{col 27}{space 2} .1158265{col 38}{space 1}    1.20{col 47}{space 3}0.231{col 55}{space 4}-.0882641{col 68}{space 3} .3657677
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0860071{col 27}{space 2}  .194715{col 38}{space 1}    0.44{col 47}{space 3}0.659{col 55}{space 4}-.2956272{col 68}{space 3} .4676415
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOA22
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox prelim_cf defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_12 if  unilateral==0 & local==0 & exclude2 !=1  , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-682.84702
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-649.94784
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-649.15405
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-649.14864
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-649.14864
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-649.14864

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     7,802
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         147
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      234611
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}    244.48
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-649.14864             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7660869{col 27}{space 2} .2521993{col 38}{space 1}   -3.04{col 47}{space 3}0.002{col 55}{space 4}-1.260388{col 68}{space 3}-.2717853
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.217688{col 27}{space 2} .2881059{col 38}{space 1}   -4.23{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4}-1.782365{col 68}{space 3}-.6530111
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.1291461{col 27}{space 2} .9371518{col 38}{space 1}   -0.14{col 47}{space 3}0.890{col 55}{space 4} -1.96593{col 68}{space 3} 1.707638
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3140957{col 27}{space 2}  .103353{col 38}{space 1}   -3.04{col 47}{space 3}0.002{col 55}{space 4}-.5166638{col 68}{space 3}-.1115276
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0927108{col 27}{space 2} .1692457{col 38}{space 1}    0.55{col 47}{space 3}0.584{col 55}{space 4}-.2390046{col 68}{space 3} .4244262
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  -.42016{col 27}{space 2} .2639326{col 38}{space 1}   -1.59{col 47}{space 3}0.111{col 55}{space 4}-.9374584{col 68}{space 3} .0971385
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1538086{col 27}{space 2} .0921367{col 38}{space 1}    1.67{col 47}{space 3}0.095{col 55}{space 4} -.026776{col 68}{space 3} .3343932
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3822867{col 27}{space 2} .0955739{col 38}{space 1}    4.00{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .1949652{col 68}{space 3} .5696082
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0462279{col 27}{space 2} .2188591{col 38}{space 1}    0.21{col 47}{space 3}0.833{col 55}{space 4} -.382728{col 68}{space 3} .4751838
{txt}{space 1}lag_bdths_12 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0015488{col 27}{space 2}  .000362{col 38}{space 1}    4.28{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .0008394{col 68}{space 3} .0022583
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOA23
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox  defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_12 if unilateral==0 & local !=1 & coh==0  & exclude2 !=1 , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-298.55264
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-286.15232
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-284.24412
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-284.17823
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-284.17795
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-284.17795

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         106             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     6,025
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}          72
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      181814
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}9{txt})     =  {res}     95.09
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-284.17795             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:39} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.9056166{col 27}{space 2} .3162132{col 38}{space 1}   -2.86{col 47}{space 3}0.004{col 55}{space 4}-1.525383{col 68}{space 3}-.2858501
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.602198{col 27}{space 2} 1.378324{col 38}{space 1}   -1.16{col 47}{space 3}0.245{col 55}{space 4}-4.303663{col 68}{space 3} 1.099268
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0316522{col 27}{space 2} .1516756{col 38}{space 1}   -0.21{col 47}{space 3}0.835{col 55}{space 4}-.3289309{col 68}{space 3} .2656266
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.2683431{col 27}{space 2} .1562325{col 38}{space 1}   -1.72{col 47}{space 3}0.086{col 55}{space 4}-.5745531{col 68}{space 3} .0378669
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7803416{col 27}{space 2} .4154486{col 38}{space 1}   -1.88{col 47}{space 3}0.060{col 55}{space 4}-1.594606{col 68}{space 3} .0339227
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0209361{col 27}{space 2} .2077555{col 38}{space 1}    0.10{col 47}{space 3}0.920{col 55}{space 4}-.3862573{col 68}{space 3} .4281295
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .2275346{col 27}{space 2} .1401658{col 38}{space 1}    1.62{col 47}{space 3}0.105{col 55}{space 4}-.0471853{col 68}{space 3} .5022545
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0631435{col 27}{space 2} .2778175{col 38}{space 1}   -0.23{col 47}{space 3}0.820{col 55}{space 4}-.6076558{col 68}{space 3} .4813689
{txt}{space 1}lag_bdths_12 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0018475{col 27}{space 2} .0005166{col 38}{space 1}    3.58{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4}  .000835{col 68}{space 3} .0028601
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOA24
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox prelim_cf defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_123 if unilateral==0 &  local==0 & exclude2 !=1  , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-682.84702
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-649.99294
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-649.49418
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-649.49317
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-649.49317

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     7,802
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         147
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      234611
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}    222.59
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-649.49317             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7736105{col 27}{space 2} .2515125{col 38}{space 1}   -3.08{col 47}{space 3}0.002{col 55}{space 4}-1.266566{col 68}{space 3} -.280655
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.218096{col 27}{space 2}  .287439{col 38}{space 1}   -4.24{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4}-1.781466{col 68}{space 3}-.6547257
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.1257995{col 27}{space 2} .9379315{col 38}{space 1}   -0.13{col 47}{space 3}0.893{col 55}{space 4}-1.964112{col 68}{space 3} 1.712513
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3163024{col 27}{space 2} .1029016{col 38}{space 1}   -3.07{col 47}{space 3}0.002{col 55}{space 4}-.5179859{col 68}{space 3} -.114619
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0920029{col 27}{space 2} .1695267{col 38}{space 1}    0.54{col 47}{space 3}0.587{col 55}{space 4}-.2402634{col 68}{space 3} .4242692
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.4248226{col 27}{space 2} .2652559{col 38}{space 1}   -1.60{col 47}{space 3}0.109{col 55}{space 4}-.9447147{col 68}{space 3} .0950694
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1531545{col 27}{space 2} .0924253{col 38}{space 1}    1.66{col 47}{space 3}0.098{col 55}{space 4}-.0279957{col 68}{space 3} .3343047
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3836042{col 27}{space 2}  .096974{col 38}{space 1}    3.96{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .1935387{col 68}{space 3} .5736697
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0500996{col 27}{space 2}  .219326{col 38}{space 1}    0.23{col 47}{space 3}0.819{col 55}{space 4}-.3797715{col 68}{space 3} .4799707
{txt}lag_bdths_123 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0011873{col 27}{space 2} .0003186{col 38}{space 1}    3.73{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .0005628{col 68}{space 3} .0018118
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOA25
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox  defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_123 if unilateral==0 & local !=1 & coh==0 & exclude2 !=1  , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-298.55264
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-285.70315
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-285.06933
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-285.06771
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-285.06771
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-285.06771

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         106             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     6,025
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}          72
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      181814
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}9{txt})     =  {res}     67.04
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-285.06771             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:39} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.895659{col 27}{space 2} .3143424{col 38}{space 1}   -2.85{col 47}{space 3}0.004{col 55}{space 4}-1.511759{col 68}{space 3}-.2795592
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.529958{col 27}{space 2} 1.359714{col 38}{space 1}   -1.13{col 47}{space 3}0.261{col 55}{space 4}-4.194948{col 68}{space 3} 1.135032
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0385797{col 27}{space 2} .1500823{col 38}{space 1}   -0.26{col 47}{space 3}0.797{col 55}{space 4}-.3327356{col 68}{space 3} .2555761
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.2579667{col 27}{space 2} .1550334{col 38}{space 1}   -1.66{col 47}{space 3}0.096{col 55}{space 4}-.5618266{col 68}{space 3} .0458932
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7758635{col 27}{space 2} .4145104{col 38}{space 1}   -1.87{col 47}{space 3}0.061{col 55}{space 4}-1.588289{col 68}{space 3} .0365618
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0336427{col 27}{space 2} .2142952{col 38}{space 1}    0.16{col 47}{space 3}0.875{col 55}{space 4}-.3863683{col 68}{space 3} .4536536
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .2240363{col 27}{space 2} .1416783{col 38}{space 1}    1.58{col 47}{space 3}0.114{col 55}{space 4} -.053648{col 68}{space 3} .5017206
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0432135{col 27}{space 2} .2637684{col 38}{space 1}   -0.16{col 47}{space 3}0.870{col 55}{space 4}-.5601901{col 68}{space 3}  .473763
{txt}lag_bdths_123 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0010901{col 27}{space 2} .0005614{col 38}{space 1}    1.94{col 47}{space 3}0.052{col 55}{space 4}-.0000102{col 68}{space 3} .0021905
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOA26
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab modelOA21 modelOA22 modelOA23 modelOA24 modelOA25 modelOA26, cells(b(star fmt(3)) p(par fmt(2))) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01) scalars("N_fail Conflict Terminations" "aic AIC" "bic BIC" "ll Log lik." "chi2 Chi-squared")  label 
{res}
{txt}{hline 110}
{txt}                              (1)            (2)            (3)            (4)            (5)            (6)  
{txt}                     analysis t~s   analysis t~s   analysis t~s   analysis t~s   analysis t~s   analysis t~s  
{txt}                              b/p            b/p            b/p            b/p            b/p            b/p  
{txt}{hline 110}
{txt}Preliminary CF no ~n{res}       -0.622**                      -0.766**                      -0.774**               {txt}
                    {res}       (0.01)                        (0.00)                        (0.00)                 {txt}
{txt}Definitive CF       {res}       -0.770**       -0.385*        -1.218**       -0.906**       -1.218**       -0.896**{txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.02)         (0.00)         (0.00)         (0.00)         (0.00)  {txt}
{txt}Electoral democrac~x{res}       -0.788         -1.032         -0.129         -1.602         -0.126         -1.530  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.19)         (0.17)         (0.89)         (0.25)         (0.89)         (0.26)  {txt}
{txt}Log Population      {res}       -0.152+         0.074         -0.314**       -0.032         -0.316**       -0.039  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.06)         (0.44)         (0.00)         (0.83)         (0.00)         (0.80)  {txt}
{txt}Log GDP per capita  {res}        0.043         -0.065          0.093         -0.268+         0.092         -0.258+ {txt}
                    {res}       (0.68)         (0.50)         (0.58)         (0.09)         (0.59)         (0.10)  {txt}
{txt}UCDP Incompatabili~n{res}       -0.370+        -0.322         -0.420         -0.780+        -0.425         -0.776+ {txt}
                    {res}       (0.05)         (0.21)         (0.11)         (0.06)         (0.11)         (0.06)  {txt}
{txt}Count of other act~ {res}        0.118          0.069          0.154+         0.021          0.153+         0.034  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.13)         (0.56)         (0.10)         (0.92)         (0.10)         (0.88)  {txt}
{txt}Count of dyads in ~t{res}        0.241**        0.139          0.382**        0.228          0.384**        0.224  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.23)         (0.00)         (0.10)         (0.00)         (0.11)  {txt}
{txt}Peacekeeping mission{res}        0.050          0.086          0.046         -0.063          0.050         -0.043  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.77)         (0.66)         (0.83)         (0.82)         (0.82)         (0.87)  {txt}
{txt}Lag BD 2 months     {res}                                      0.002**        0.002**                              {txt}
                    {res}                                     (0.00)         (0.00)                                {txt}
{txt}Lag BD 3 Months     {res}                                                                    0.001**        0.001+ {txt}
                    {res}                                                                   (0.00)         (0.05)  {txt}
{txt}{hline 110}
{txt}Observations        {res}        10397           7723           7802           6025           7802           6025  {txt}
{txt}Conflict Terminati~s{res}          199            110            147             72            147             72  {txt}
{txt}AIC                 {res}       1692.2          824.6         1318.3          586.4         1319.0          588.1  {txt}
{txt}BIC                 {res}       1757.4          880.2         1387.9          646.7         1388.6          648.5  {txt}
{txt}Log lik.            {res}       -837.1         -404.3         -649.1         -284.2         -649.5         -285.1  {txt}
{txt}Chi-squared         {res}        61.85          27.26          244.5          95.09          222.6          67.04  {txt}
{txt}{hline 110}

{com}. 
. 
. *Online Appendix Table 10: Interact monitoring and defin
. 
. *Model OA40
. 
. streg monitoring defin_cf monitoring##defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 if unilateral==0 &  local==0 & exclude2 !=1  , nohr d(weibull)cl(ccode)

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id
{txt}note: 1.monitoring omitted because of collinearity
note: 1.defin_cf omitted because of collinearity

Fitting constant-only model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-561.05827
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-427.26653
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-411.69707
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-411.53523
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-411.53522

{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-411.53522}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-384.80013}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-380.91882}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-380.88712}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-380.88701}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-380.88701}  
{res}
{txt}Weibull PH regression

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     7,802
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         147
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      234611
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}11{txt})    =  {res}     90.26
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-380.88701             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 85:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 20}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 21}{c |}{col 33}    Robust
{col 1}                 _t{col 21}{c |}      Coef.{col 33}   Std. Err.{col 45}      z{col 53}   P>|z|{col 61}     [95% Con{col 74}f. Interval]
{hline 20}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 9}monitoring {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.8276341{col 33}{space 2} .2908798{col 44}{space 1}   -2.85{col 53}{space 3}0.004{col 61}{space 4}-1.397748{col 74}{space 3}-.2575202
{txt}{space 11}defin_cf {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-1.789717{col 33}{space 2} .4906419{col 44}{space 1}   -3.65{col 53}{space 3}0.000{col 61}{space 4}-2.751358{col 74}{space 3}-.8280768
{txt}{space 7}1.monitoring {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}        0{col 33}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 9}1.defin_cf {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}        0{col 33}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 19} {c |}
monitoring#defin_cf {c |}
{space 15}1 1  {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} 1.415878{col 33}{space 2} .6158993{col 44}{space 1}    2.30{col 53}{space 3}0.022{col 61}{space 4} .2087373{col 74}{space 3} 2.623018
{txt}{space 19} {c |}
{space 6}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.3726508{col 33}{space 2} .9004903{col 44}{space 1}   -0.41{col 53}{space 3}0.679{col 61}{space 4}-2.137579{col 74}{space 3} 1.392278
{txt}{space 15}lpop {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.1960368{col 33}{space 2}   .10898{col 44}{space 1}   -1.80{col 53}{space 3}0.072{col 61}{space 4}-.4096337{col 74}{space 3} .0175601
{txt}{space 12}lrgdppc {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0962453{col 33}{space 2} .1746163{col 44}{space 1}    0.55{col 53}{space 3}0.582{col 61}{space 4}-.2459963{col 74}{space 3} .4384869
{txt}{space 9}government {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.3174121{col 33}{space 2} .3122968{col 44}{space 1}   -1.02{col 53}{space 3}0.309{col 61}{space 4}-.9295026{col 74}{space 3} .2946783
{txt}{space 14}count {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1279532{col 33}{space 2} .1041302{col 44}{space 1}    1.23{col 53}{space 3}0.219{col 61}{space 4}-.0761382{col 74}{space 3} .3320447
{txt}{space 8}count_dyads {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .3684847{col 33}{space 2} .1209884{col 44}{space 1}    3.05{col 53}{space 3}0.002{col 61}{space 4} .1313517{col 74}{space 3} .6056176
{txt}{space 16}pko {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .1899833{col 33}{space 2} .2713635{col 44}{space 1}    0.70{col 53}{space 3}0.484{col 61}{space 4}-.3418794{col 74}{space 3} .7218459
{txt}{space 8}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .0004093{col 33}{space 2}  .000929{col 44}{space 1}    0.44{col 53}{space 3}0.660{col 61}{space 4}-.0014116{col 74}{space 3} .0022301
{txt}{space 14}_cons {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.6109474{col 33}{space 2}  1.68292{col 44}{space 1}   -0.36{col 53}{space 3}0.717{col 61}{space 4} -3.90941{col 74}{space 3} 2.687515
{txt}{hline 20}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 14}/ln_p {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2}-.7429792{col 33}{space 2} .0545786{col 44}{space 1}  -13.61{col 53}{space 3}0.000{col 61}{space 4}-.8499514{col 74}{space 3}-.6360071
{txt}{hline 20}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                  p {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} .4756946{col 33}{space 2} .0259628{col 61}{space 4} .4274357{col 74}{space 3} .5294021
{txt}                1/p {c |}{col 21}{res}{space 2} 2.102189{col 33}{space 2} .1147346{col 61}{space 4} 1.888923{col 74}{space 3} 2.339533
{txt}{hline 20}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOA31
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab modelOA31, cells(b(star fmt(3)) p(par fmt(2))) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01) scalars("N_fail Conflict Terminations" "aic AIC" "bic BIC" "ll Log lik." "chi2 Chi-squared")  label 
{res}
{txt}{hline 35}
{txt}                              (1)  
{txt}                     analysis t~s  
{txt}                              b/p  
{txt}{hline 35}
{res}analysis time when~s               {txt}
{txt}monitoring          {res}       -0.828**{txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)  {txt}
{txt}Definitive CF       {res}       -1.790**{txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)  {txt}
{txt}monitoring=0        {res}        0.000  {txt}
                    {res}          (.)  {txt}
{txt}monitoring=1        {res}        0.000  {txt}
                    {res}          (.)  {txt}
{txt}Definitive CF=0     {res}        0.000  {txt}
                    {res}          (.)  {txt}
{txt}Definitive CF=1     {res}        0.000  {txt}
                    {res}          (.)  {txt}
{txt}monitoring=0 # Def~0{res}        0.000  {txt}
                    {res}          (.)  {txt}
{txt}monitoring=0 # Def~1{res}        0.000  {txt}
                    {res}          (.)  {txt}
{txt}monitoring=1 # Def~0{res}        0.000  {txt}
                    {res}          (.)  {txt}
{txt}monitoring=1 # Def~1{res}        1.416* {txt}
                    {res}       (0.02)  {txt}
{txt}Electoral democrac~x{res}       -0.373  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.68)  {txt}
{txt}Log Population      {res}       -0.196+ {txt}
                    {res}       (0.07)  {txt}
{txt}Log GDP per capita  {res}        0.096  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.58)  {txt}
{txt}UCDP Incompatabili~n{res}       -0.317  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.31)  {txt}
{txt}Count of other act~ {res}        0.128  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.22)  {txt}
{txt}Count of dyads in ~t{res}        0.368**{txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)  {txt}
{txt}Peacekeeping mission{res}        0.190  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.48)  {txt}
{txt}Lag BD 1 month      {res}        0.000  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.66)  {txt}
{txt}Constant            {res}       -0.611  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.72)  {txt}
{hline 35}
{res}/                                  {txt}
{txt}ln_p                {res}       -0.743**{txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)  {txt}
{txt}{hline 35}
{txt}Observations        {res}         7802  {txt}
{txt}Conflict Terminati~s{res}          147  {txt}
{txt}AIC                 {res}        787.8  {txt}
{txt}BIC                 {res}        878.3  {txt}
{txt}Log lik.            {res}       -380.9  {txt}
{txt}Chi-squared         {res}        90.26  {txt}
{txt}{hline 35}

{com}. 
. 
. * Online Appendix Table 11: Additional Controls 
. 
. *Models OA41-OA46
. 
. *Diplomatic Missions
. 
. stcox prelim_cf defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads diplomatic pko lag_bdths_1 if unilateral==0 &  local==0 & exclude2 !=1  , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-682.84702
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-650.85722
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-650.29871
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-650.29752
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-650.29752

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     7,802
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         147
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      234611
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}11{txt})    =  {res}    303.39
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-650.29752             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7483579{col 27}{space 2} .2421335{col 38}{space 1}   -3.09{col 47}{space 3}0.002{col 55}{space 4}-1.222931{col 68}{space 3} -.273785
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.263928{col 27}{space 2} .2831431{col 38}{space 1}   -4.46{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4}-1.818879{col 68}{space 3}-.7089781
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.1938943{col 27}{space 2} .9369853{col 38}{space 1}   -0.21{col 47}{space 3}0.836{col 55}{space 4}-2.030352{col 68}{space 3} 1.642563
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3233358{col 27}{space 2} .1030427{col 38}{space 1}   -3.14{col 47}{space 3}0.002{col 55}{space 4}-.5252959{col 68}{space 3}-.1213758
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1249374{col 27}{space 2} .1631801{col 38}{space 1}    0.77{col 47}{space 3}0.444{col 55}{space 4}-.1948896{col 68}{space 3} .4447644
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3907835{col 27}{space 2} .2525246{col 38}{space 1}   -1.55{col 47}{space 3}0.122{col 55}{space 4}-.8857226{col 68}{space 3} .1041556
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .164727{col 27}{space 2} .0937474{col 38}{space 1}    1.76{col 47}{space 3}0.079{col 55}{space 4}-.0190145{col 68}{space 3} .3484685
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3550108{col 27}{space 2} .0975933{col 38}{space 1}    3.64{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .1637314{col 68}{space 3} .5462901
{txt}{space 3}diplomatic {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3944484{col 27}{space 2} .2528859{col 38}{space 1}    1.56{col 47}{space 3}0.119{col 55}{space 4}-.1011988{col 68}{space 3} .8900955
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  -.01904{col 27}{space 2} .2203297{col 38}{space 1}   -0.09{col 47}{space 3}0.931{col 55}{space 4}-.4508782{col 68}{space 3} .4127982
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0014359{col 27}{space 2} .0005632{col 38}{space 1}    2.55{col 47}{space 3}0.011{col 55}{space 4}  .000332{col 68}{space 3} .0025397
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT111
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox  defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads  diplomatic pko lag_bdths_1 if unilateral==0 & local !=1 & coh==0  & exclude2 !=1 , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-298.55264
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-286.40608
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-285.79619
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-285.79566
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-285.79566
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-285.79566

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         106             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     6,025
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}          72
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      181814
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}     51.48
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-285.79566             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:39} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.8906173{col 27}{space 2} .3132958{col 38}{space 1}   -2.84{col 47}{space 3}0.004{col 55}{space 4}-1.504666{col 68}{space 3}-.2765688
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.415536{col 27}{space 2} 1.282235{col 38}{space 1}   -1.10{col 47}{space 3}0.270{col 55}{space 4} -3.92867{col 68}{space 3} 1.097598
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0511992{col 27}{space 2} .1568969{col 38}{space 1}   -0.33{col 47}{space 3}0.744{col 55}{space 4}-.3587114{col 68}{space 3}  .256313
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.2289612{col 27}{space 2} .1696934{col 38}{space 1}   -1.35{col 47}{space 3}0.177{col 55}{space 4}-.5615541{col 68}{space 3} .1036317
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7431116{col 27}{space 2}  .403269{col 38}{space 1}   -1.84{col 47}{space 3}0.065{col 55}{space 4}-1.533504{col 68}{space 3} .0472811
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0755488{col 27}{space 2} .2041305{col 38}{space 1}    0.37{col 47}{space 3}0.711{col 55}{space 4}-.3245396{col 68}{space 3} .4756372
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .2067963{col 27}{space 2} .1393182{col 38}{space 1}    1.48{col 47}{space 3}0.138{col 55}{space 4}-.0662623{col 68}{space 3} .4798549
{txt}{space 3}diplomatic {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .083466{col 27}{space 2} .4233538{col 38}{space 1}    0.20{col 47}{space 3}0.844{col 55}{space 4}-.7462921{col 68}{space 3} .9132242
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0199256{col 27}{space 2} .2320689{col 38}{space 1}   -0.09{col 47}{space 3}0.932{col 55}{space 4}-.4747724{col 68}{space 3} .4349211
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0007222{col 27}{space 2} .0011151{col 38}{space 1}    0.65{col 47}{space 3}0.517{col 55}{space 4}-.0014633{col 68}{space 3} .0029078
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT112
{txt}
{com}. 
. *Total number of PKO forces 
. 
. stcox prelim_cf defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko troops   lag_bdths_1 if unilateral==0 &  local==0 & exclude2 !=1  , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-682.84702
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-648.84669
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-648.26928
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -648.2683
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -648.2683

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         190             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     7,802
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         147
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      234611
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}11{txt})    =  {res}    242.49
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res} -648.2683             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7676602{col 27}{space 2} .2420751{col 38}{space 1}   -3.17{col 47}{space 3}0.002{col 55}{space 4}-1.242119{col 68}{space 3}-.2932017
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.195118{col 27}{space 2} .2926827{col 38}{space 1}   -4.08{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4}-1.768765{col 68}{space 3}-.6214703
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0570213{col 27}{space 2} .9162365{col 38}{space 1}   -0.06{col 47}{space 3}0.950{col 55}{space 4}-1.852812{col 68}{space 3} 1.738769
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3254281{col 27}{space 2} .0951456{col 38}{space 1}   -3.42{col 47}{space 3}0.001{col 55}{space 4}-.5119101{col 68}{space 3}-.1389461
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1817967{col 27}{space 2} .1528167{col 38}{space 1}    1.19{col 47}{space 3}0.234{col 55}{space 4}-.1177184{col 68}{space 3} .4813119
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3881621{col 27}{space 2} .2411713{col 38}{space 1}   -1.61{col 47}{space 3}0.108{col 55}{space 4}-.8608492{col 68}{space 3} .0845249
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1345269{col 27}{space 2} .0870572{col 38}{space 1}    1.55{col 47}{space 3}0.122{col 55}{space 4}-.0361021{col 68}{space 3}  .305156
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .4251119{col 27}{space 2} .0993365{col 38}{space 1}    4.28{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .2304159{col 68}{space 3} .6198079
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1327861{col 27}{space 2} .2113802{col 38}{space 1}    0.63{col 47}{space 3}0.530{col 55}{space 4}-.2815114{col 68}{space 3} .5470837
{txt}{space 7}troops {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0000385{col 27}{space 2} .0000142{col 38}{space 1}   -2.71{col 47}{space 3}0.007{col 55}{space 4}-.0000664{col 68}{space 3}-.0000106
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0014996{col 27}{space 2} .0006848{col 38}{space 1}    2.19{col 47}{space 3}0.029{col 55}{space 4} .0001575{col 68}{space 3} .0028417
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT113
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox  defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 troops   if unilateral==0 & local !=1 & coh==0 & exclude2 !=1  , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-298.55264
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-285.22457
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-284.64794
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-284.64717
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-284.64717
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-284.64717

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         106             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     6,025
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}          72
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      181814
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}     66.47
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-284.64717             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:39} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.8140601{col 27}{space 2} .3019937{col 38}{space 1}   -2.70{col 47}{space 3}0.007{col 55}{space 4}-1.405957{col 68}{space 3}-.2221633
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.186277{col 27}{space 2}  1.21346{col 38}{space 1}   -0.98{col 47}{space 3}0.328{col 55}{space 4}-3.564616{col 68}{space 3} 1.192062
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0513017{col 27}{space 2} .1409375{col 38}{space 1}   -0.36{col 47}{space 3}0.716{col 55}{space 4}-.3275341{col 68}{space 3} .2249306
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.164836{col 27}{space 2} .1428469{col 38}{space 1}   -1.15{col 47}{space 3}0.249{col 55}{space 4}-.4448108{col 68}{space 3} .1151387
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} -.710148{col 27}{space 2} .3687731{col 38}{space 1}   -1.93{col 47}{space 3}0.054{col 55}{space 4} -1.43293{col 68}{space 3} .0126339
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .054576{col 27}{space 2} .1992951{col 38}{space 1}    0.27{col 47}{space 3}0.784{col 55}{space 4}-.3360352{col 68}{space 3} .4451872
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .2700706{col 27}{space 2} .1571627{col 38}{space 1}    1.72{col 47}{space 3}0.086{col 55}{space 4}-.0379627{col 68}{space 3} .5781039
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0441346{col 27}{space 2} .2464639{col 38}{space 1}    0.18{col 47}{space 3}0.858{col 55}{space 4}-.4389257{col 68}{space 3}  .527195
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0007852{col 27}{space 2}  .001239{col 38}{space 1}    0.63{col 47}{space 3}0.526{col 55}{space 4}-.0016431{col 68}{space 3} .0032135
{txt}{space 7}troops {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0000396{col 27}{space 2} .0000192{col 38}{space 1}   -2.06{col 47}{space 3}0.040{col 55}{space 4}-.0000772{col 68}{space 3}-1.90e-06
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT114
{txt}
{com}. 
. *UN Signatory 
. 
. stcox prelim_cf defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko imun lag_bdths_1 if unilateral==0 &  local==0 & exclude2 !=1  , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res} -677.6077
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-646.43244
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-645.85378
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-645.85294
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-645.85294

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         189             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     7,799
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}         146
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      234529
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}11{txt})    =  {res}    298.52
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-645.85294             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:42} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 4}prelim_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7549511{col 27}{space 2} .2504442{col 38}{space 1}   -3.01{col 47}{space 3}0.003{col 55}{space 4}-1.245813{col 68}{space 3}-.2640895
{txt}{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.225622{col 27}{space 2} .2956124{col 38}{space 1}   -4.15{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4}-1.805011{col 68}{space 3} -.646232
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.1412919{col 27}{space 2} .9358324{col 38}{space 1}   -0.15{col 47}{space 3}0.880{col 55}{space 4} -1.97549{col 68}{space 3} 1.692906
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3049546{col 27}{space 2} .0990939{col 38}{space 1}   -3.08{col 47}{space 3}0.002{col 55}{space 4}-.4991751{col 68}{space 3}-.1107341
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .1083944{col 27}{space 2} .1683888{col 38}{space 1}    0.64{col 47}{space 3}0.520{col 55}{space 4}-.2216416{col 68}{space 3} .4384305
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.3854448{col 27}{space 2} .2550886{col 38}{space 1}   -1.51{col 47}{space 3}0.131{col 55}{space 4}-.8854093{col 68}{space 3} .1145198
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .158603{col 27}{space 2} .0888005{col 38}{space 1}    1.79{col 47}{space 3}0.074{col 55}{space 4}-.0154428{col 68}{space 3} .3326488
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3653116{col 27}{space 2} .0962201{col 38}{space 1}    3.80{col 47}{space 3}0.000{col 55}{space 4} .1767236{col 68}{space 3} .5538996
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0120053{col 27}{space 2} .1965601{col 38}{space 1}    0.06{col 47}{space 3}0.951{col 55}{space 4}-.3732455{col 68}{space 3} .3972561
{txt}{space 9}imun {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0471728{col 27}{space 2} .2539137{col 38}{space 1}    0.19{col 47}{space 3}0.853{col 55}{space 4}-.4504888{col 68}{space 3} .5448344
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0014013{col 27}{space 2} .0005823{col 38}{space 1}    2.41{col 47}{space 3}0.016{col 55}{space 4}   .00026{col 68}{space 3} .0025426
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT115
{txt}
{com}. 
. stcox  defin_cf v2x_polyarchy lpop lrgdppc gov count count_dyads pko lag_bdths_1 imun if unilateral==0 & local !=1 & coh==0  & exclude2 !=1 , nohr cl( ccode )

         {txt}failure _d:  {res}term_eithera
   {txt}analysis time _t:  {res}duration1
                 {txt}id:  {res}cf_id

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-293.91427
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-281.21794
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-280.30057
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-280.29913
{txt}Refining estimates:
Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-280.29913

{txt}Cox regression -- Breslow method for ties

No. of subjects      = {res}         105             {txt}Number of obs    =  {res}     6,022
{txt}No. of failures      = {res}          71
{txt}Time at risk         = {res}      181732
                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})    =  {res}     61.39
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood =   {res}-280.29913             {txt}Prob > chi2      =  {res}    0.0000

{txt}{ralign 79:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:39} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 14}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 15}{c |}{col 27}    Robust
{col 1}           _t{col 15}{c |}      Coef.{col 27}   Std. Err.{col 39}      z{col 47}   P>|z|{col 55}     [95% Con{col 68}f. Interval]
{hline 14}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}defin_cf {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.8783949{col 27}{space 2} .3045238{col 38}{space 1}   -2.88{col 47}{space 3}0.004{col 55}{space 4}-1.475251{col 68}{space 3}-.2815392
{txt}v2x_polyarchy {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-1.280292{col 27}{space 2} 1.337167{col 38}{space 1}   -0.96{col 47}{space 3}0.338{col 55}{space 4}-3.901091{col 68}{space 3} 1.340506
{txt}{space 9}lpop {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.0163564{col 27}{space 2} .1501892{col 38}{space 1}   -0.11{col 47}{space 3}0.913{col 55}{space 4}-.3107218{col 68}{space 3} .2780089
{txt}{space 6}lrgdppc {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.2323835{col 27}{space 2} .1752189{col 38}{space 1}   -1.33{col 47}{space 3}0.185{col 55}{space 4}-.5758062{col 68}{space 3} .1110393
{txt}{space 3}government {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.7585784{col 27}{space 2} .4187878{col 38}{space 1}   -1.81{col 47}{space 3}0.070{col 55}{space 4}-1.579388{col 68}{space 3} .0622307
{txt}{space 8}count {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}  .055068{col 27}{space 2} .2179893{col 38}{space 1}    0.25{col 47}{space 3}0.801{col 55}{space 4}-.3721831{col 68}{space 3} .4823192
{txt}{space 2}count_dyads {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .2069509{col 27}{space 2} .1336981{col 38}{space 1}    1.55{col 47}{space 3}0.122{col 55}{space 4}-.0550924{col 68}{space 3} .4689943
{txt}{space 10}pko {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2}-.1410418{col 27}{space 2} .2100715{col 38}{space 1}   -0.67{col 47}{space 3}0.502{col 55}{space 4}-.5527743{col 68}{space 3} .2706908
{txt}{space 2}lag_bdths_1 {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .0009189{col 27}{space 2} .0010423{col 38}{space 1}    0.88{col 47}{space 3}0.378{col 55}{space 4}-.0011241{col 68}{space 3} .0029618
{txt}{space 9}imun {c |}{col 15}{res}{space 2} .3971506{col 27}{space 2} .2694677{col 38}{space 1}    1.47{col 47}{space 3}0.141{col 55}{space 4}-.1309964{col 68}{space 3} .9252975
{txt}{hline 14}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. eststo modelOAT116
{txt}
{com}. 
. esttab modelOAT111 modelOAT112 modelOAT113 modelOAT114 modelOAT115 modelOAT116, cells(b(star fmt(3)) p(par fmt(2))) star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01) scalars("N_fail Conflict Terminations" "aic AIC" "bic BIC" "ll Log lik." "chi2 Chi-squared")  label 
{res}
{txt}{hline 110}
{txt}                              (1)            (2)            (3)            (4)            (5)            (6)  
{txt}                     analysis t~s   analysis t~s   analysis t~s   analysis t~s   analysis t~s   analysis t~s  
{txt}                              b/p            b/p            b/p            b/p            b/p            b/p  
{txt}{hline 110}
{txt}Preliminary CF no ~n{res}       -0.748**                      -0.768**                      -0.755**               {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)                        (0.00)                        (0.00)                 {txt}
{txt}Definitive CF       {res}       -1.264**       -0.891**       -1.195**       -0.814**       -1.226**       -0.878**{txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.00)         (0.00)         (0.01)         (0.00)         (0.00)  {txt}
{txt}Electoral democrac~x{res}       -0.194         -1.416         -0.057         -1.186         -0.141         -1.280  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.84)         (0.27)         (0.95)         (0.33)         (0.88)         (0.34)  {txt}
{txt}Log Population      {res}       -0.323**       -0.051         -0.325**       -0.051         -0.305**       -0.016  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.74)         (0.00)         (0.72)         (0.00)         (0.91)  {txt}
{txt}Log GDP per capita  {res}        0.125         -0.229          0.182         -0.165          0.108         -0.232  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.44)         (0.18)         (0.23)         (0.25)         (0.52)         (0.18)  {txt}
{txt}UCDP Incompatabili~n{res}       -0.391         -0.743+        -0.388         -0.710+        -0.385         -0.759+ {txt}
                    {res}       (0.12)         (0.07)         (0.11)         (0.05)         (0.13)         (0.07)  {txt}
{txt}Count of other act~ {res}        0.165+         0.076          0.135          0.055          0.159+         0.055  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.08)         (0.71)         (0.12)         (0.78)         (0.07)         (0.80)  {txt}
{txt}Count of dyads in ~t{res}        0.355**        0.207          0.425**        0.270+         0.365**        0.207  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.00)         (0.14)         (0.00)         (0.09)         (0.00)         (0.12)  {txt}
{txt}UN diplomatic miss~n{res}        0.394          0.083                                                              {txt}
                    {res}       (0.12)         (0.84)                                                              {txt}
{txt}Peacekeeping mission{res}       -0.019         -0.020          0.133          0.044          0.012         -0.141  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.93)         (0.93)         (0.53)         (0.86)         (0.95)         (0.50)  {txt}
{txt}Lag BD 1 month      {res}        0.001*         0.001          0.001*         0.001          0.001*         0.001  {txt}
                    {res}       (0.01)         (0.52)         (0.03)         (0.53)         (0.02)         (0.38)  {txt}
{txt}PKO troop numbers   {res}                                     -0.000**       -0.000*                               {txt}
                    {res}                                     (0.01)         (0.04)                                {txt}
{txt}UN signatory        {res}                                                                    0.047          0.397  {txt}
                    {res}                                                                   (0.85)         (0.14)  {txt}
{txt}{hline 110}
{txt}Observations        {res}         7802           6025           7802           6025           7799           6022  {txt}
{txt}Conflict Terminati~s{res}          147             72            147             72            146             71  {txt}
{txt}AIC                 {res}       1322.6          591.6         1318.5          589.3         1313.7          580.6  {txt}
{txt}BIC                 {res}       1399.2          658.6         1395.1          656.3         1390.3          647.6  {txt}
{txt}Log lik.            {res}       -650.3         -285.8         -648.3         -284.6         -645.9         -280.3  {txt}
{txt}Chi-squared         {res}        303.4          51.48          242.5          66.47          298.5          61.39  {txt}
{txt}{hline 110}

{com}. 
. 
. 
{txt}end of do-file

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 {txt}closed on:  {res}17 Feb 2021, 15:34:33
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